Saturday, April 12, 2014

Severe Weather Expected Later this Afternoon

Severe weather will ramp up in parts of the midwest later this afternoon, as a area of low pressure passes to the west of the threat area. The main severe weather threat will be large hail and maybe damaging winds. The map on the left shows the probability of hail within 50 miles of any point. Severe weather will not effect everyone in these areas, but heavy rain is a near certainty. A widespread 1-3" from Nebraska to Michigan will create flooding problems in low laying areas.
Below is the possible rain totals:


Thursday, April 3, 2014

Major Winter Storm Thursday and Friday

Another major winter storm will strike much of Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin Thursday into Friday. Heavy snow will develop Thursday afternoon and last through Friday. As the storm intensifies Friday, it will have the likelihood to drop over a foot of snow near Lake Superior.
Further south, severe weather is ramping up as the SPC has a moderate risk of severe weather.

Wednesday, March 26, 2014

More Snow Expected Thursday for the Same Areas

Yet another storm is on the way for just about the sames areas who saw accumulating snow about a week ago. An area of low pressure will pass through the Midwest on Thursday. Areas further south will see a wintry mix or just plain old rain. There will be a warm side to the system as a warm front moves through places such as Illinois or Indiana. Even further south severe weather is expected to break out, see map below. Warmer weather arrives by the end of the weekend, which will be the first 60 for many areas!

Sunday, March 23, 2014

Major Warm Up on Tap Next Week

Early next week has the potential to bring some of the warmest air of the season. With high pressure in the eastern part of the country and an area of low pressure passing through the Dakotas, strong warm air advection will bring Gulf air northward.
On the left you will see a map of 850mb temps for next Monday of the latest 18z GFS model run. It is showing widespread 10-15C temps, which translates to 60s/70s for at least the southern half of the Midwest, depending on where the front sets up. Stay tuned for updates on this incoming Spring.

Friday, March 21, 2014

Spring Outlook and Spring Flood Threat

NOAA has released their annual Spring outlook for 2014. Believe it or not, we are now officially in the season of Spring! While the weather may not agree with the calender, warmer temperatures will eventually greet you outside. However, model trends and analog years point to a cool spring, as seen on the left.  Many factors are in play for the persistent cold, but significant snow cover and oscillating jet stream are two driving forces to the unwanted below normal temperatures.
The map on the right shows the flood risk over the next three months. The snow cover and frozen ground will cause problems with rain run off. Many areas in the Midwest are in the "moderate" risk area for flooding and should consider preparations to those that reside in a flood prone area. Otherwise, it will be a wait and see scenario and will depend on how quickly it warms up and/or where and if heavy rains occur in these areas. In other news, There are some signs of a warm up in 8-10 days on a few models! Something to watch for...

For the sake of Spring optimism, here is a 850mb temperature forecast of the 12z GFS ran this morning for 2 weeks from now. It is showing a warm Spring day and pattern. Cold air suppressed well north and a strong area of high pressure in the east. This pattern leads to a long fetch of warm air from the Gulf to Canada leading to widespread 60s/70s/80s. While this exact situation likely will not happen, it is showing up more and more on the models as this stubborn pattern is attempting to switch over.
Briefly discussing the U.S drought forecast, we see much of this country's dry conditions will reside in the desert southwest.  The CPC is predicting a drought removal for nearly all of the Midwest, after several years, thanks to an above normal winter in terms of precipitation.









Thanks to www.noaa.gov for the well done maps!

Monday, March 17, 2014

Major March Winter Storm Tuesday

A major March winter storm will slowly push through the Midwest on Tuesday. Snow will begin to overspread parts of the Upper Mississippi River Valley later Monday night and last through Tuesday. A foot of snow is not out of the question for areas around Duluth that usually see leeside downsloping (see red area). Otherwise, a wide area (for March) of accumulating snow from the Dakotas to the UP of Michigan. Areas further south will see mainly rain, with some mixing on the back side as cold air is ushered in.

This system will emerge out of the Rockies and deepen to a healthy 992mb. Then face upper atmospheric dynamic problems and quickly weaken back to a minimal 1000mb area of low pressure. However, the area of precipitation will continue in Minnesota, but will weaken with the storm. The real question comes in to yet another strengthening in Wisconsin, which will have a major impact on how much snow will fall in northern Wisconsin. This is not a standard winter storm and is ever-changing in the models. As always, the latest snow model can be found HERE!

Tuesday, March 4, 2014

Light to Moderate Snow Tonight with Associated with an Alberta Clipper-like System

A weak system will develop tonight and fall apart just as fast tomorrow morning. In the height of this disturbance a general area of 2-4" will fall with up to 5" in some spots and only an 1" around the heaviest band of snow. Most of the snow will fall overnight, making for a dicey commute for the morning in some spots, while other areas will not see a flake.
Areas that see clear skies will see the temperature drop like a rock, while the snow will act as a blanket to keep the atmosphere warm.

Latest Computer Model Projections

Saturday, March 1, 2014

Heavy March Snow on the Way, Anyone Surprised?

A major snow event is on tap for Sunday into Monday. This system will dump rain, snow and ice from coast to coast and effect the Midwest in a big, snowy way Sunday. With ample moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to overspread an arctic air mass already in place, snow will break out late Saturday night and continue well into Sunday. The heaviest axis of snow will stretch from central Nebraska to the New Jersey area, where up to a foot of snow is possible in areas on the east coast. Points further south will deal with a wintry mix that will limits snow accumulations.

On the right is a map of the current NWS watches, warnings and advisories. As you can see this storm will effect more that half of the country over the next few days. Winter storm warnings currently in place for 21 states on this, the first day of meteorological Spring, with winter storm watches kicking over the warning for the east coast late today or tomorrow. Notice the wind chill warnings in the Northern Plains, as yet another arctic blast is on the way after this system rolls though Sunday night.

Friday, February 28, 2014

Accumulating Snow Friday From Iowa to Michigan

Light to Moderate snow has been developing all morning and will begin to accumulate across parts of the Midwest by the afternoon. I wide swath of 1-3" can be expected for most places. Up to 4", maybe an isolated 5" amount in Northeast Wisconsin where the strongest convergence will take place. More snow can be expected for point south on Saturday and a much larger system for Sunday and Monday. An area of 6"+ is possible with that system so stay tuned!

Tuesday, February 25, 2014

More Extreme Cold on the Way

More cold expected for tonight and tomorrow night.  On the left is the GFS computer model for low temperatures Wednesday morning. Notice the widespread temps below -10!

On the bottom is the projected windchills for tomorrow morning off the GFS model as well. Wind chill advisories are already posted for much of the Midwest.

Wednesday, February 19, 2014

Major Winter Storm and Severe Weather on the Way Thursday

Very Heavy snow on the way for parts of the Midwest on Thursday as a rapidly intensifying storm system moves northeast into the area. This system will be on the verge of bombogenesis, dropping ~20mb in a 24 hours time period. Confidence is on the rise as much of the major computer models are forecasting this solution. The area with the highest uncertainty falls in central Iowa to Green Bay, as mixing and how rapidly the cold air wraps around will play a major role in total snowfall, right now 1-3" looks like a safe bet.

Greatest severe threat has shifted slightly to the south. On the warm side, this storm looks to bring the first real severe weather threat of the season. As warm gulf moisture crashes into yet another surge of arctic air (yes the cold will return in full force by the end of the week). The main threats look to be heavy rain and large hail, with damaging winds also possible in many areas. The highest threat, at this time, appears to be in the Ohio River Valley where the best atmospheric dynamics will set up. It will be interesting to see how the snow cover effects and possibly limits severe weather potential on Thursday.

*Added in an over inch of rain area.
No matter what, heavy rain will be a major issue on Thursday. Not only will many locations see over a half inch of rain, the record breaking snow depth will play a major role in flooding. Be sure to pay attention to your local flooding advisories. Furthermore, you may want to consider shoveling snow off the roof as roof collapses will likely occur as heavy rain is soaked up like a sponge on the roof of your home or business. It is an issue every year with storm like this, and can be fixed with a preemptive strike.

Tuesday, February 18, 2014

Complex, Major Cross Country Storm Winter Storm Thursday into Friday

A major winter storm will strike the Midwest and much of the country Thursday, effecting over 150 million people by the time Friday rolls around. This system will bring everything from warm to cold temperatures, from heavy snow to flooding rains to severe weather.  It will prove to be a text book Spring-like area of low pressure. Models are still trying to pin down the track (which will play the largest role in who sees what). On the left you see a map of anticipated weather phenomena for Thursday. Heavy snow in Wisconsin, and severe weather south, a mix in between.

On the warm side, this storm looks to bring the first real severe weather threat of the season. As warm gulf moisture crashes into yet another surge of arctic air (yes the cold will return in full force by the end of the week). The main threats look to be heavy rain and large hail, with damaging winds also possible in many areas. The highest threat, at this time, appears to be in the Ohio River Valley where the best atmospheric dynamics will set up. It will be interesting to see how the snow cover effects and possibly limits severe weather potential on Thursday.

No matter what, heavy rain will be a major issue on Thursday. Not only will many locations see over a half inch of rain, the record breaking snow depth will play a major role in flooding. Be sure to pay attention to your local flooding advisories. Furthermore, you may want to consider shoveling snow off the roof as roof collapses will likely occur as heavy rain is soaked up like a sponge on the roof of your home or business. It is an issue every year with storm like this, and can be fixed with a preemptive strike.


Monday, February 17, 2014

Complex yet Major Storm Thursday

Now we are still 4 days out, so its nearly impossible to pin down specifics such as snow totals, icing, and severe weather. However, a major storm is on the way Thursday. A clashing of Spring and winter in the midsection of the United States. We will see everything from heavy snow (maybe 6"+) to possible icing, flooding rain on the order of 1"+ over a deep snow pack, not to mention a widespread severe weather outbreak is looking very likely. As always, it will really depend on the specific track of the system to understand who gets what. The map on the left will give you a general idea. Be sure to stay tuned for updates as this major event gets closer. In the meantime enjoy the above normal temperature area wide through the end of the week.

Sunday, February 16, 2014

Winter Storm Advisories and Warnings in Effect for Monday

Accumulating snow with some lake enhancement in spots expected to impact travel on the Midwest on Monday. A robust Alberta Clipper-like system will produce a broad area of 3-6" through the Great Lakes. A smaller area of up to 7" is also likely in northwestern Wisconsin. Furthermore, the western shore of Lake Superior may see near 8" of snow with some lake enhancement working in. The snow will depart by late Monday, wind will not be a major problem this time around. 
 On the right are the latest winter weather headlines from the National Weather Service. Very broad area of winter weather advisories are in effect for multiple states, including some winter storm warnings in the pink for areas in the upper Mississippi River Valley, all of which are for heavy snow in a short period of time.
Further south winter weather advisories are also in effect for a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain.
On the left you see images of a radar simulation ran off the 12z NAM computer model. Most areas will see the snow during the morning hours. This will make for a dicey commute for cities such as Minneapolis and Madison. The snow should push out by the late afternoon. Also notice the darker greens embedded in the wide snow band.

Saturday, February 15, 2014

Quick Hitting Burst of Moderate Snow Monday

The next storm system is already making its way onshore the west coast and is poised to strike the Midwest with a decent amount of snow over a 12-16 hour time period. The snow may be heavy at times as this storm system is efficient enough to wrap around gulf moisture into a below freezing air mass. The system will continue to push east and drop a general 3-6" in the heaviest areas. Computer models differ on the amounts, being a couple days out. Stay tuned for any possible tweaks to the snow forecast.
On the right you see images of a radar simulation ran off the 12z NAM computer model. Most areas will see the snow during the morning hours. This will make for a dicey commute for cities such as Minneapolis and Madison. The snow should push out by the late afternoon. Also notice the darker greens embedded in the wide snow band.

A Few Inches of Snow Expected this Afternoon

Light Snow is ongoing and expected to begin accumulating this afternoon as a small disturbance moves through the Midwest. A small area of northeast Iowa will see an isolated 4" amount as the highest convergence will occur here. Light winds will accompany the snow, but will not factor in any more than that. The band of snow will weaken as it pushes east southeast throughout the afternoon. Another stronger storm can be expected for Monday, with winter weather advisory-like snows expected. Stay tuned!

Monday, February 10, 2014

A Midwestern Warm Up is Looming

WARMER WEATHER ON THE WAY:

For the first time in weeks the Climate Prediction Center has much of the Midwest in the above normal temperature category for the 6-10 day time period. It also appears that this small pattern change will last well into the next 1-2 weeks...much needed relief to the seemingly ended string of arctic blasts.

Tuesday, February 4, 2014

Final Snow Map for Tuesday Winter Storm

Some small tweaks to the snow map for today's winter storm...This is includes what has already accumulated:


Monday, February 3, 2014

Major Cross-Country Winter Storm Tuesday

Yet another major winter to hammer some of the same areas in recent memory. A very similar strength and track as the storm system on Saturday. However, more moisture will wrap around from the Gulf of Mexico into the colder air on the back side. A long band of ~6" of snow across the heart of the Midwest will blanket these areas by Wednesday. The map on the left will give you a good idea of what to expect in your neighborhood. Computer models are starting to nail down these winter storms down this winter, so confidence in fairly high.

With the increased snowpack, it will be awhile for any significant warm up. Long range models are still showing expansive cold across most of the country, with the larger departure from average in the Midwest area.  Below is the CPC 6-10 day forecast:

Friday, January 31, 2014

Winter Storm Number 1 of Parade of Storms for the Midwest

We are likely headed into the most active pattern of the year in terms of winter storms for the lower Midwest. For starters, a winter storm will dump in excess of 6" across many areas by Saturday night. Prefrontal snows have already dumped ~5" of snow near the Nebraska and Kansas border and light snow has overspread northern Illinois. The main event and deformation zone get going later tonight with the heaviest snow on Saturday morning for northern Illinois to Lower Michigan. Some lake enhancement around the Chicago area can be expected. Anyone trapped under some of these enhanced bands have the potential to see a foot of snow by Saturday evening. Points further south will see a rain to wintery mix back to rain, icing will not be a major issue, but a coating of a tenth of an inch is possible.



MORE STORMS OF THE WAY



Storm #2

Timing: Monday night through Tuesday

Track: somewhere through the Ohio River Valley

Intensity: potential for excess of 6" of snow








Storm #3 Potential

Timing: next weekend

Intensity: winter storm caliber, several inches of snow with heavy rain further south

Track: Still up in the air, being 8-9 days out.





Total 10 day "POSSIBLE" snow fall, via instant weather maps


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