Thursday, October 8, 2015
It's happening again! A tropical cyclone is set to have a major impact on the weather across the United States. Remember Nuri last year (Nuri Post)? It brought a major pattern change, one to a cold trend. Oho, seen below, is set to have the opposite effect. Its track takes it north right on into the jet stream, which will help to build a ridge to the east of its track. This ridge will then propagate to the east and set up over the mid-section of the country for the weekend, bringing widespread 80s and 90s the parts of the Midwest.
Tuesday, October 6, 2015
Wednesday, September 16, 2015
We are back!! As the winter season nears, here are some initial thoughts on what the winter of 2016 will bring...It is starting to look more and more likely that warmer temps in the Pacific will hold the Polar jet stream further north than usual and keep the Midwest warmer than average. Big snows are still possible, with the best chance for above average snow in the southern Midwest feeding off the tropical jet. Otherwise we are leaning towards slightly below normal snow amounts, but certainty is lower for precipitation anomalies. One thing looks certain, above average temperatures do look very likely!
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Wednesday, June 10, 2015
Wednesday, April 22, 2015
Meanwhile, another storm system will move up from the four corners regions and set up for a soggy, yet much need rain across central parts of the Midwest. Relief does set in by Sunday and next week as temperatures climb back to normal levels and the sun peaks out yet again.
Friday, April 10, 2015
Well, it has been a crazy 24 hours! My video and comments have been on local news around the country. I currently have a broker licensing my video of an EF-4 tornado to media outlets. It all started after bailing from a separate tornadic cell after it began to get wrapped in rain. After getting ahead of that cell, another super cell began to form to the east, so we chased after it. Witnessed the funnel form and then touch down. We then reported to emergency management, 2 minutes later a warning was issued. It rapidly grew into a large tornado. We stayed with it for an hour and 15 minutes before losing it in the darkness and trees. It might be safe to say I will never see anything like that again. It was historic. Here is our chase video:
Wednesday, April 8, 2015
Thursday, April 2, 2015
Another round of severe weather and heavy rain will impact the Ohio River valley Thursday. A strong storm system that brought severe weather and 80+ degree temperatures to Minneapolis is pushing south and east. With a humid air mass in place and a cold front crashing south east, storms will have an ample amount of energy to work with, as well as a strong trigger in the form of a cold front. The main threat for severe weather will be damaging winds, along a squall line, with embedded areas of large to damaging hail.
Sunday, March 22, 2015
Wednesday, March 18, 2015
Sunday, March 1, 2015
Friday, February 27, 2015
The next storm looks to strike the Midwest Tuesday. It will be even stronger and affect areas further to the north that have been stricken of snow in recent weeks. Stay tuned for updates
Tuesday, February 24, 2015
Sunday, February 22, 2015
CPC agrees with continued cold air across much of the CONUS over the next 8-14 days. This pattern is similar to the one that set up in January last year. Luckily, we are heading into March, so the sun angle is higher in the sky and "Polar Vortex-like" temperatures will not be seen. However, departures from average will be extensive, and there will be nothing Spring-like about the next two weeks.
It has been generally dry, or snow free in the Midwest over the past month or so. This can be attributed to the northwest to southeast flow. Alberta clippers can form on such a pattern, but they are usually moisture stricken, as their origin is in a cold dry area of Canada. Meanwhile, the east coast was orientated directly in the active storm track. There is a potential that we could head into a more stormy pattern, in the Midwest. Some models suggest the trough to push far enough west and high pressure to build off the east coast. This would allow the jet stream and storm track to set up through the Great Lakes, with snow to the west of the storm track. This would be very favorable for winter storms and cyclones in the Midwest. It would also signal warmer weather for the east coast. Our first opportunity of this change comes in next weekend. The European and american models are showing decent snow across Iowa and Wisconsin, as a storm system and substantial line of baroclinicity sets up. We will need to watch this closely and provide updates, as needed if these storms come to fruition.
Friday, February 20, 2015
On the warm side of the system, freezing rain will be a concern. Winter storm warnings and ice storm warnings are in effect for tonight through Saturday. On the right is the freezing rain potential, courtesy of the WPC. With warm air aloft and a substantial cold air layer near the surface, ice accumulation is yet again going to stack up, on the order of a quarter inch or more. Power outages and impassable roads can be expected in the hardest hit locations. We have attached a snapshot of the 18z GFS, at the height of the storm. One thing to notice is that the rain/snow line, as per usual, will feature a sharp cut off. Any minor tweaks to the track, or strength of the cold air could majorly impact snow totals in some areas. Along with the expansive cold across the eastern US, winter is definitely not over yet. The pattern looks to stay cold for the next 10 days, when we may switch over to a more zonal and warm pattern, fingers crossed.
Thursday, February 19, 2015
Tuesday, February 17, 2015
Sunday, February 15, 2015
Yet another winter storm to strike eastern parts of the country. This time areas further south will get into the action. From Missouri to New Jersey, several inched of snow are likely with frozen precipitation points further south. The heaviest snow looks to fall in Central and Eastern Kentucky, where over a foot of snow is likely in localized areas. Meanwhile from Arkansas to North Carolina, significant and dangerous freezing rain will set up, over a half inch of ice may fall over a wide area. Power outages will be a rule of thumb by Monday and Tuesday.
Here is a forecast sounding off the American GFS model for an area just south of Little Rock Arkansas. This is a textbook example of a freezing rain sounding. The precipitation begins as snow above 700mb, it then hits 700-900mb up into the atmosphere, where temps are above freezing, so it melts. Once the precipitation hits 900mb it will then begin to refreeze on contact, as ground temperatures are forecasted to be in the middle half of the 20s! This could be a dangerous situation and a news worthy freezing rain event as the work week begins.
Even if you miss out on the direct impacts of the cyclone, cold air will fill the eastern half of the country by Wednesday and Thursday. It will be even colder than it has been this weekend, as another piece of the polar vortex drops south, thanks to an expansive ridge in the west and cyclone energy in the east. Wind chill warnings and advisories will certainly be issued by the NWS in the coming days. We have mapped out the area where high temperatures are in danger of not reaching zero on either Wednesday or Thursday, this would be over 36 hours of below zero weather. The pattern is going along with our Original Winter Forecast, so hopefully our projection of a relatively warmer start to spring holds true and the analog forecast years verify. Thanks for stopping by the page and be sure to 'like' our Facebook page for more content and updates, there is like box on the right panel for your convenience. Stay warm out there.
Thursday, February 12, 2015
Monday, February 9, 2015
A weak system will bring a few inches of snow to the upper Midwest starting Tuesday afternoon and lasting into Wednesday, depending on your location. Nothing to major, as much of the snow will come Tuesday night, with the exception of Minnesota, where the snow will begin Tuesday afternoon, which could lead to a slick rush hour near Minneapolis. Total snow amounts are mapped out for you. Winter weather advisories are now in effect, mainly in our 2-4" band. Meanwhile, freezing rain will impact areas where warm air aloft will work in as the precipitation shield is still in place. Those areas are in pink, much of this area is under a freezing rain advisory.