Strong Thunderstorms for Minnesota overnight

Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes have hit Nebraska and South Dakota, the same cluster is forecasted to hold together and move through Minnesota. Be sure to have those weather radios on or cell phone turned up so you can be ready.

Day One of Severe Weather Pattern Hit Tomorrow

Here we go, a 3-4 day severe weather pattern will get going starting tomorrow. This does include a high threat of damaging tornadoes, mostly in Kansas and Nebraska as we head into Saturday afternoon. The orange shaded area shows the possibility of severe weather within your county. A red area denotes a moderate threat of severe weather, and if you live in this area be on the lookout for watches and warnings Saturday! They will be hit or miss storms, but will hit hard. The threat slowly shifts easts throughout the weekend, and Sunday looks to be the worst, in terms of population and threat.

SPC Discussion and chatter about severe weather threat Saturday:

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1229 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
   
   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN KS/SWRN
   NEB...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
   EXTREME NWRN TX INTO SERN ND/NWRN MN...
   
   ...PLAINS...
   
   LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
   EVOLUTION OF UPPER TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE WRN U.S. INTO
   THE HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD.  OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE
   EXPECTED INCREASE IN MID LEVEL FLOW INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ATOP AN
   INCREASINGLY MOIST/BUOYANT AIRMASS.  LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
   DEPICTS EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS OK WITH A DECIDEDLY ELY LOW
   LEVEL COMPONENT WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.  THIS CLOUDINESS WILL BE
   STUBBORN TO ERODE DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD AND IN THE ABSENCE OF
   MEANINGFUL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH
   SATURDAY MORNING ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RAPIDLY RETURN
   ACROSS KS INTO NEB SATURDAY.
   
   LATEST THINKING IS WARM ADVECTION MAY DRIVE A BOUT OF EARLY MORNING
   CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN DAKOTAS BENEATH MODEST LLJ. 
   WHILE THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL...IT SHOULD SPREAD EWD
   INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY DURING THE MID DAY HOURS AS A WEAK BRANCH
   OF THE LLJ FOCUSES INTO THIS REGION.
   
   LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INSISTS STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR
   ACROSS SERN CO INTO NWRN TX.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRYLINE TO MIX TO A
   POSITION NEAR THE OK BORDER...ARCING NWWD TO A SFC LOW OVER WRN KS
   BY 19/00Z.  WITH SFC DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO RISE WELL INTO THE
   MID-UPPER 60S EAST OF THE DRYLINE...EXTREME INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP
   ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM WRN OK INTO NWRN KS WHERE SBCAPE COULD EXCEED
   4000 J/KG.  AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE TX
   PANHANDLE INTO SWRN KS INHIBITION WILL BE NEGATED AND DISCRETE
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.  HAVE INCREASED THE
   SEVERE PROBS ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS/NEB AS THIS PORTION OF THE CNTRL
   PLAINS SHOULD EXPERIENCE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR...POTENTIALLY
   SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES.  LATEST 12Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS STRONGLY
   SUPPORT SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE MDT RISK REGION WITH SBCAPE IN EXCESS
   OF 4000 J/KG WITH SFC-6KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40KT. 
   ADDITIONALLY...VERY LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY ANY SUPERCELLS THAT
   DEVELOP SATURDAY.  LATEST FORECAST HAIL ALGORITHMS SUGGEST HAIL
   COULD EASILY EXCEED BASEBALL SIZE WITH ORGANIZED ACTIVITY.
   
   SOMEWHAT WEAKER DEEP LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS MAY LIMIT
   OVERALL SEVERE THREAT AND FOR THIS REASON HAVE ONLY EXTENDED 15
   PERCENT THREAT INTO PORTIONS OF NWRN TX.
   
   ...TN VALLEY/CNTRL GULF STATES...
   
   WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE INTO THE MIDDLE TN VALLEY/NRN
   GULF STATES SATURDAY.  MODEST NWLY FLOW ALONG BACKSIDE OF THIS
   FEATURE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME HAIL/WIND.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
   MODULATED BY DIURNAL HEATING AND SHOULD WEAKEN WITH AFTER SUNSET.
   
   ..DARROW.. 05/17/2013

Severe Weather Season Heating up

A major severe weather outbreak is possible for the end of this week and even more so on Monday. A warming Midwest west will set up on Saturday and Sunday to create necessary instability. An upper level area of low pressure will move into the Plains for Saturday. Severe weather possible. Then, a strong cold front will then crash in and fire up storms along itself. The exact area where these interactions is still a little in question, being four days away, but we thought is was time to alert everyone to this developing situation. More information in the coming days.  

More Snow For the Midwest

Cold front, closed low, record highs, and record lows. This storm system really has it all. Today and tonight will bring heavy snow to the same areas hit with constant winter storms the past few weeks. Up to 8" and possibly 10" can be expected in the darker shadings. Take a look at the current temperatures in the region by clicking on the "current weather" tab and you will see a major contrast. 80s to the east and 20s in the west. This storm already dumped over a foot of snow just west of Denver! No matter what, the snow will melt quickly and summer is just around the corner.

Unsettled Weather this Week, Due to Closed Low

The Midwest is in for a warm, then chilly active week. Thunderstorms will move through areas in Wisconsin, Iowa and Illinois today and tomorrow, with severe weather possible. Tuesday looks to be the warmest day, with widespread 80s generally south and east of Minneapolis. Then as we head into Wednesday and mostly Thursday an area of upper level low pressure will separate itself from the jet stream and stick around well into the weekend. Notice in the video the circular isobars and abundant energy in the Midwest. Usually these storms are steered by the upper level patterns, but since it is a "closed low" and separate from the jet stream it will meander for days, with unsettled rain showers (some snow possible) and clouds. 

Spring is a Day or Two away

With the calender almost running to May, a spring pattern is finally in the works. The jet stream will push north and winds will shift to a southerly direction. This will pump up warm moist air into all of the Midwest starting Friday. This is not due to a large storm, so the warm will be sticking around, and the threat of any severe weather looks minimal. A large snow pack still persists in areas, but much of that will be gone by next week, with flooding being a concern. Coming off record snow months in the Great Plains, the warm weather is a welcomed sight.

One more winter storm

One more winter storm to impact the area today and tonight. A very narrow band of 6"+ will line up, see the red shading. A lot of this snow will melt on contact and/or compress will it piles up. It may be annoying, but with warm weather on the way the snow will not last long, and a spring pattern will settle in by Friday, and last into the foreseeable future!

Warm Weather is Coming, (this weekend) we promise

A frontal boundary will pass through the region Monday, bringing some light snow early this morning, then rain showers and a few thunderstorms later today. The front will stall just southeast of the area tonight, and a wave of low pressure will ripple northeast along it on Monday, bringing the potential for accumulating snow to much of the area. Precipitation will initially be in the form of rain over much of the area, but a changeover from rain to snow will occur from west to east Monday afternoon and evening. The question is how much will stick. Does it matter? Spring will be here by Friday!


some material from NWS minneapolis

A Classic Textbook Spring Storm

Serious Flooding Situation in areas tonight and tomorrow, with severe weather and heavy snow on the way as well: (see last post for more info and a rain forecast including today's amounts)

Extreme Flooding and Heavy Snow Expected

Major flooding is possible in many areas with heavy rain over the next few days. These are the same areas hit hard last week. Flood watches and warnings fill the Midwest in anticipation. Soil is either still frozen in spots or saturated in others, making for the worst possible conditions. Areas may see over 5 inches depending of where thunderstorms line up. Oh, and by the way there is a large risk for severe weather, south of Wisconsin. Meanwhile, more heavy snow in western areas. Be sure to check local weather updates and warnings when conditions go down hill.

The white numbers are snow forecasts, and black is rain

Another Storm to Impact the Midwest

Yet another storm is bearing down on the Midwest for the middle of this week. Accumulating snow appears very likely from Denver to Intentional Falls. Amounts could exceed 6"+ and over a foot just east of the Rocky Mountains, where some enhanced lift will be prevalent. Meanwhile, heavy rain will worsen the flooding situation in Iowa, Wisconsin and Illinois. The exact track of the storm is still in question, but the strength looks to be set in stone. Meaning, the band of heavy snow could shift a little west or east in the coming days, stay tuned. Look for a snow maps soon.

More Snow Sunday

More of the same for the Northern Plains, heavy snow. A strong area of low pressure will move into the area starting tonight, and last into Sunday night. High winds and heavy snow should be expected, especially in North Dakota. The unwelcomed sight of snow is somewhat offset by the fact that the snow will help the drought situation. Meanwhile more sleet and ice in southern Minnesota and Wisconsin.
More of the same (cold weather) will persist long into next week. Here is a good forecast by the CPC (climate prediction center) Click Here!

More Snow on the Way for Tonight

Updated snow map

Not much has changed, main difference is the eastern extent to the 6-12" range was trimmed:

Spring Winter Storm to Dump Heavy Snow

A very strong  and complex storm system will continue to be a weather maker for the Midwest this week. On the left is a snow map through Thursday. Much on the area will see rain and then switch over to some snow by Thursday. In some cases accumulating snow. As you can see the heaviest snow will be in the Dakotas, where up to 20" or more is not out of the question. This slow moving system should exit by Friday, but we appear to be stuck in a cold and rainy pattern into next week.

Edit: 7:00pm Temperatures:

Yet Another Spring Winter Storm

Do I even dare post this forecast? Here is one model's take on the large storm for Tuesday through Wednesday, confirmed by other computer models. Now, you can take a good 30-50% off these numbers! Given the warm surface and atmosphere. This will still put out a large area of 6"+ of snow for western areas, with moderate rain to the east. More details in the coming days... 

Quick Hitting Storm System

Much of the Midwest will see warm and welcomed weather today. On Friday night a low pressure center will likely create some accumulating snow in northern areas. It takes a lot of factors to come together to get snow in April, but this system should do it. Most areas will see a slushy 1-3" with up to 4" or 5" in far northern areas. Meanwhile, rain will fill in to the south, along with the warmest air of the season for Saturday. Next week will also need to be watch as more snow is possible, this includes more southern areas.

The First Sight of Spring

Another cold week ahead, as the January pattern will continue to hold for the next 4-5 days. However, by the end of the week conditions look to favor for at least seasonable temperatures. We have been stuck in a pattern that was highly driven by strong high pressure blocking in the north Atlantic. Notice the negative values on the NAO (north atlantic oscillation) chart below. This usually means a stormy and cold pattern for the midwest and eastern coast. It appears that this index will go to neutral and many models are showing a warm up with a northern shift to the jet stream. Southerly winds will usher warm air north. Most areas will finally get above average for Saturday and Sunday. Not a major warm up, but it will feel relatively warm compared to recent weeks. Areas that just received heavy snow on Sunday will struggle to warm up with d snow cover, but with strong warm air advection temperatures just above average should still be expected. Early next week forecast gets a little iffy, some models showing another snow storm, some hold the warm air. We'll have to wait until we get closer. Once we get into late April long term prospects look favorable for a warm late spring and early summer. 

12z GSF model ensembles for NAO index, trend is upward.

Yet Another Pattern Induced Storm

Winter Is not over yet, and it looks like the pattern will hold for 10 days or more. The jet stream is way south (one factor for the cold) and this will lead to a cross country winter storm dropping heavy snow from Denver to Boston. In the Midwest it looks like the heaviest snows will be in northern Missouri, up to 10" or 11" are possible in this area. The storm will start Sunday in linger into Monday night for some. Another disturbance will create an enhanced area of light snow in northern Iowa and southern Minnesota. Spring will come, once it does long term data suggested an above average one!

Winter Storm Monday

Winter is not over yet, and no major warm ups in the near future. There are some signs of a warm towards the end of next week, but don't hold your breadth. For Monday, two low pressure systems will nearly merge tomorrow. One will bring blizzard conditions to southern Minnesota. Not too much snow there, but the winds will blow hard and create near white out conditions, possible interstate closures Monday morning (in the normal open areas). It will be a quick hitting snow, so watch out during the morning and afternoon commute. The heavy totals will stay to the north.