Saturday, December 31, 2011

Midwest Snowfall to Fall into the New Year

A snow may be new to people in the Midwest. The New Year will feature brutal travel conditions with, wind, ice and snow. The lake affect machine will get going tomorrow with strong northwest winds off the lake, with up to 2 feet of snow likely in some areas. Otherwise a general 1-3" in wisconsin and Michigane with northern wisconsin seeing up to 4". After the snow ends expect winds to pick up and usher in the coldest air of the season. Take care driving tomorrow and have a great New Year!

Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Tonight and Friday Night Clipper Forecast for Midwest

"Active" weather pattern to begin tonight for the midwest. The first system will move through the midwest rapidly tonight and drop a dusting to an inch in most areas by daybreak and isolated amount over an ich in northern Wisconsin. The next low pressure area will be stronger and slightly slower, therefore dropping more snow in basically the same areas. Look for the heaviest axis of snow to fall in SE Wisconsin and Michigan with 1-4" to fall by saturday. This is the first "Alberta-like" clipper pattern to occur in this fasion this year, so some of the models are not in total agreement, but the first two clippers do appear to drop a somewhat decent amount of snow (see map). Now for the next clipper, model madness! the GFS shows a simple 1-3" and the NAM digs south, pulls up moisture and dumps it in Minnasota...showing 6-10". Crazy right? I guess we will have to see how the models play this one out the next 24-36 hours! Comment always welcome! :)

Monday, December 26, 2011

Alberta Clippers to Affect the Midwest Late in the Week

Clipper Update: It appears 2 clippers will affect the midwest at the end of the week. Models are still not in a total agreement, but the map below shows the most probable tracks. Each storm will generally bring 1-2" with small bands of up to 3" will be very likely. The snow will fall even and just north of the track of the low pressure, with these fast moving clipper systems. Don't look for much wind with these, but rather light winds that will blow a light and fluffy snow around. There is another shortwave system showing up in the models for next sunday, but we will deal with that one when the time comes. Stay tuned and check back for updates!

Sunday, December 25, 2011

"Active" Pattern to Begin at the End of this Week in Midwest

Although there will not be a major winter storm in the midwest for awhile, small Alberta clippers will make there way through the midwest starting Thursday. These types of storms usually drop 1-3"/2-4" in most areas and are fast moving systems, with minor amounts of wind. It it possible that 3 systems will affect the area between Thursday and Sunday, but the computer models have had quite the struggle with this pattern change. I will say that the Canadian model is showing a winter storm over northern Minnasota this coming weekend, but this is the only model with this solution. So snow lovers, don't get your hopes up just yet. But the the extended snow drought has a good chance to end later this week!

Saturday, December 24, 2011

Some Snow Possible Next Friday in Midwest

Next week the NAO (see last blog entry) does appear to at least go neutral, meaning conditions will be favorable snow midwest. Models are showing a stronger Alberta clipper next Friday and then another one for next Sunday. The sunday one could be a 4-7"? we will wait and see on that one. As for Friday, it appears that 1-3" will fall in the eastern great lakes and then strengthen and drop 2-4"/3-5" in areas of Wisconsin. Stay tuned for updates, and Have a great Holiday Weekend!

So Where's the Snow? And What About the NAO

So where is all this snow we were suppose to have already? Better yet, when will the NAO go negative? See, we need the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to be negative so that low pressure systems can deepen and produce heavy snows in the midwest and northeast. Some of the models have the NAO going negative by the new year, see image. The NCEP is still forecasting an above normal snow for this winter in much of the midwest, but time will tell. If the current NAO stay positive look for temps to stay above normal and small storm systems, but nothing over 4-5". Hopefully that can change by the new year!

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

A little Snow in the Midwest Tonight

A cold front will provide just enough lift for snow to occur throughout the midwest tonight. Up to an inch can be expected is most places, maybe an inch and a half in isolated areas in the heaviest bands. The snow will fall mainly during the overnight hours (11:00pm-11:00am) and will accumulate during the early morning hours. Look for slick roads, as this may be the first snowfall of the year.

Saturday, December 17, 2011

Midwest and Plains Snow Storm Sunday and Monday

The storm that had its sights on the midwest all week has decided to dive south. The storm will emerge out of the Rockies sunday night on move northeast over the week. Cold air will only be available in the panhandle area. The storm will be another wet one for the midwest. Keep it here for updates!

Thursday, December 15, 2011

Battle of the Weather Models for Next Week

A large storm will affect the midwest early next week. Leading to the chance of a white Christmas for many. As of now, the computer models are all over the place with this storm. The track ranges from 100 miles north to a 100 miles south of the track on the map. With that said, a band of snow (3-6"?)will occur somewhere, most likely in the blue shaded area. Even more impressive, the area of rain will be quite massive south of the track.

EDIT: storm shifted way south, about 80 miles

Monday, December 12, 2011

Storm System to Hit Midwest Middle this Week

A "warm" strong system will affect the midwest with mainly rain for those affected. The storm will be relatively weak so the amount of cold air that can be pumped into the system will be low so the accumulating snow will only be in a small area. Rain amounts in the outlined section on the map will be a half inch to and inch, with isolated areas with slightly more. I will mention the the japanese has a stronger storm and heavy snow in northwest wisconsin, but this is the least reliable model so it will likely merge with the other models in a few days. Stay tuned for updates

Sunday, December 11, 2011

Midwest Storm Hits Middle this Week

Winter Storm will take over much of the midwest wed and thur. Given the time of year, this storm will be on the warm side and most of the area will see rain or some kind of mix. Accumulating snow is still possible, most likely in western wisconsin and minnasota. This is still a strong storm so winds will be a factor for many. If this storm were to emerge in a few weeks we would be looking at a 8-12" snow, but instead will likely see a 2-4"/3-6" storm. Snow totals will be fine tuned as we get closer.

Friday, December 9, 2011

Winter Storm Still Possible Next Thursday

A winter storm still appears possible next week, but the computer models are having a tough time with this storm. The past few runs cut the storm up into Minnesota and the heaviest snow west of the Mississippi. This current model run brings the storm into the Chicago area with very heavy rain in northwest Indiana. The main problem with the models is the amount of phasing in the northern plains, basically the stronger the phasing the more north the storm will come. Right now the most probable track would bring the storm through Iowa and Wisconsin, with the heaviest snow in MN and northwest WI. With that said, a band of 6-12" is possible with a "Rocky Mountain" storms, but it appears that 4-8" of snow with be the most from this storm. Stay tuned hopefully the first snow map can be made next monday or tuesday!

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Snowstorm Possible Next Wednesday into Thursday

A winter storm is starting to look more and more likely next week. The GFS has a strong low pressure over Chicago next wed. The rain/snow line appears to be off, which can happen with storms over a week away. I feel as the storm gets closer the line will set up as any other winter storm. As always with storms 8 days out alot can still happen, stay tuned for updates!

Monday, December 5, 2011

Half the Country Warm, Half Cold. Midwest on the Cold Side

It is going to be a split week as far as temperature goes in the United States. The midwest will be cold and East will be warm. The Pacific Jet will dip south and allow colder air in from Canada. The opposite holds true for the eastern half of the country, the jet will lift north and allow warm gulf air into these areas.

Saturday, December 3, 2011

Friday, December 2, 2011

Weekend Winter Storm in the Midwest

A very slight jog to the north has occurred in the track. Still thinking 3-6" for much of the Midwest that see snow. There will be a very sharp cut off on the east side of the snow swath due to rain mixing in. The snow will start on Saturday in the plains and work north into the upper Midwest Saturday night and into Sunday morning. The 18z GFS and 18z NAM are holding the same track in the latest model runs, so confidence is high. Check back here for updates!

Thursday, December 1, 2011

Midwest Weekend Winterstorm to Kick Off December

Models are finally beginning to come together this evening. This is my best snow forecast as of now. A Low pressure will track up from Texas and into the Great Lakes by Saturday night. It is not a very strong storm so winds will be minimal. It will, however, usher in colder air for the coming weeks. It is still a few days out so stay tuned. A 15-20 jog in the track could mean someone getting 4" instead of no snow at all.

2:32AM: new model run has storm more north, about 30miles. only one model model, but if this trend continues the snow map will be changed. stay tuned!

Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Snowstorm in the Midwest this Weekend

A medium strength storm will track through the midwest this weekend. It will bring a good amount of snow (4-8") to areas in the midwest. Right now the problem is computer models. One has the storm track up through central Iowa and Wisconsin, the other brings it through the Chicago area. Usually, the snow will occur about 100-150miles northwest of the track. The yellow outlined area includes both extremes. I am leaning towards the more reliable model (GFS). Meaning areas in the eastern part of the outlined area have a better chance of snow and more of a 3-6" snow in these areas. Hopefully the models will come together soon! Keep it here for updates

Sunday, November 27, 2011

Michigan Snowstorm Tuesday Night (GFS Model Analysis)

The new model run is in. It shows over a foot of snow in some areas! That is likely overdone in this model, so I went with 5-10" in the outlined area. Check back later for updates!

Snowstorm Likely In Michigan Middle of thie Week (NAM Model)

This is a quick look at the NAM (north american model). The snow will break out Tuesday night and Wed. morning in southern parts of Michigan (see map). It will be a heavy wet snow and should rapidly accumulate after day break. Look for an update in about an hour on the new 18z GFS model run.

Thursday, November 24, 2011

Midwest Snow this Weekend, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan

This Weekend may bring a minor snowfall to parts of the northern Midwest. A storm system will streak across the country and nearly stall out over Michigan. It will start as rain on Saturday and switch over to snow showers on Sunday. The map shows the area where 1 to 3" of snow is possible. Lake enhancement will likely occur in the U.P of Michigan where 3-6" will be possible Sunday. Keep it here to Midwest weather talk for updates!

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

A Strange Storm to Possibly Hit the Midwest this Weekend

After the Holidays there is a chance of snow in the midwest. A low pressure will basically stall out somewhere over the midwest. Nearly impossible to forecast, this storm could bring a wide range to a wide area. I circled the area where the computer models show a change of rain to snow. Stay tuned for updates! Also, see the last post for a WARM Thanksgiving.

Sunday, November 20, 2011

Give Thanks, for a Midwest Thanksgiving Warm Up

For those who like warm weather, it is time to give thanks to mother nature for a great holiday weekend of weather. We are currently in a zonal flow (west to east flow in weather), but his will soon change. The relatively horizontal jet stream will bend northward causing a southerly wind and ultimately warm air. Temps will run 10 to 20 degrees above normal on Thanksgiving, throughout the whole midwest. A storm system may will then bring rain, and maybe snow to eastern parts of the midwest Saturday and Sunday and then colder air, but lets deal with that later. Enjoy the warmth, and keep it here at midwest weather talk!

Saturday, November 19, 2011

Midwest Snowstorm Saturday and Saturday Night

The snowstorm forecasted the past week has unfolded just as first thought. On the left is my snow forecast for tomorrow and tomorrow night. I would like to point out that in northern wisconsin amounts may reach 6" due to lake enhancement, other then that the map tells it all. Nothing else to mention for the rest of the week except: a warm up seems very likely on thanksgiving day! stay tuned!

Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Update on Weekend Snowstorm in the Midwest

After the cold air being dumped into the mid west tomorrow, another November storm will be slamming the northern mid west. The track has not moved more than 5 miles the past 4-5days so the snow map looks very good. Hopefully it will not have to be changed. The map shows the American model (GFS) on the left and the European model on the right. Both show about the same placement of the low, so confidence is even higher. Stay tuned for updates!

11/16: forecast still looks goods, but change the 4-8" to 3-6" with isolated 7" near the lakes.

Monday, November 14, 2011

Midwest Snowstorm Possible Next Weekend

Another November snowstorm is possible in the mid west this weekend. A strong low pressure will emerge from the Rockies and head northward. If this track holds snow will occur in the yellow outlined area. I will mention that the track has been shifting further east every model run so i would not be surprised to see this trend continue, so stay tuned. See the previous post for the impeding cold air this week...

12:03 AM: track still looks good, 4-9" is possible. check back for updates!

Sunday, November 13, 2011

Midwest Warm Up to a Cool Down This Week

This weekend was a pleasant one, weather wise in the Midwest. Places around Chicago were up near 70 and mid 60s in the Minneapolis area. Well, that is all about to change late this week. The northern jet will dip south for a few days and usher in colder air. Temps will run 5-10 degrees below normal in just about the whole mid west from wed-fri. Also there is a chance for a snow shower in northen parts of the mid west on monday night or tuesday night. Meanwhile, another storm is being watched for next weekend. More to come on this one, but a snowstorm is possible/likely. As of now it looks to hit northern Minnesota with several inches. Keep it here to Midwest weather talk!

Saturday, November 12, 2011

Midwest Warm Up this Weekend (5-10 Degree Above Normal)

A low pressure in the Dakotas will spin up some warmer weather this weekend and early next week. The counter clockwise swirl in the winds will mean a southwest wind throughout the midwest which mean warmer weather! It is a week system s the warm up will not be much more than 5 or 10 degrees, but is certainly welcomed for many after the midweek snowstorm. Besides that, it looks to be a quite week in the midwest. Another snowstorm is possible next weekend in northern parts of the midwest (SD, ND, MN, WI). As of now 3-7" is possible, but it is still 8 days out so a good forecast is not easy. Never the less, a storm will be somewhere in the midwest next weekend, so stay tuned to midwest weather talk!

Wednesday, November 9, 2011

Winter Storm Totals in Midwest (Mainly Wisconsin)

Not much to say tonight, the map of the storm totals speaks for it self. The deformation zone set up as forecasted, in central and northern wisconsin. As for the days ahead, it looks to warm up this weekend and ALL the snow should be gone in the next couple days. Besides the warm up it should be a quite week, nothing really showing up on the models. As always, keep it here to midwest weather talk!

Tuesday, November 8, 2011

Midwest Crazy November Snowstorm

Yes, the storm has shifted again, This is due to the amount of phasing out in the Dakotas, but we will not get into that. Although it is only a day and a half away, models continue to have problems with it. The map on the left shows the likely amounts of total snow. Plese note the number on the map may not be what yousee at your house. It is still relatively warm and a good amount of melting will occur on contact. Winter storm warning have been issued in northern wisconsin and advisories have been issued is parts of wisconsin as well! If anything major changes, look for another update late tonight!

11:51PM: forecast still looks good

Monday, November 7, 2011

Tuesday Night and Wednesday Midwest Snowstorm Update

Tuesday night and Wednesday will be the first snow for many in the midwest. A storm will emerge from the Rockies and head up towards Chicago and pass through wisconsin this week. Rain will overspread the area and change to snow in the northwest parts of the midwest (see map). The track has sifted west again, causing the snow amounts to increase. Currently it looks like up to 3-6" will be likely on grassy surfaces in the outlined area. All the models are narrowing in on the track so the forecasts looks good. It still may shift 10-15 miles west or east so stay tuned.

Sunday, November 6, 2011

Updaed Snowfall Forecast for Middle of the Week

A quick update this morning. A little fine tuning of the forecast, the average forecasted position of the low has shifted slightly to the east. I did not mention early, but this storm will come in two pieces. The first piece will be warm and all rain the second will start as rain and likely switch back to snow on the back side. 4 to 5 days ago it looked like it would all come in one piece, causing a winter storm with plently of moisture, but now the most someone may see is 3-4" compared to the 10-12" if it came as one big storm. Well anyways, it will be nearly an all rain event. More updates to come, keep i there to midwest weather talk!

Update on Next Week's storm in the Midwest

Models are beginning to converge on a solution, but uncertainty is still not certain. The storm is tracking further west (cutting down on snow totals). Its that first storm model problem again. Last night it had near a foot of snow and tonight the gfs is putting down up to 5". The european and candian models continue to show the storm 20-30 miles west of the track shown in the picture, so that 1-3" amount could be generous if the american model is wrong. Hopefully by tomorrow afternoon's model runs the track will all be similar and we can give some definate snow total forecasts. Also, i said on the map that the storm could move east or west 50 miles, but i dont see it moving very far east. Maybe just east of chicago at most, but would not be surprised to see it over western wisconsin. So keep it here to midwest weather talk for updates.

Friday, November 4, 2011

Midwest Snowstorm Looking More and More Likely...

Next week in the midwest could get very sloppy for some. As of now, the main computer models have the storm moving up from OK and passing through Chicago and then into Canada. The storm will outflow rain ahead of the system on tuesday. Tuesday night the main low pressure travels on to the north bringing cold air and the high likelyhood of snow. It will start as all rain for nearly everyone before changing to all snow for some (see map). The outlined yellow area shows a greater than 50% of snow and the orange area shows where the heaviest snow would occur. I put 4-7" as of now in the orange area. Believe it or not computer models have up to a foot of snow in this area, this is well overdone. Meanwhile, rain will occur in areas east of the yellow outline. Current estimations would have 1-2" of rain in these areas. Please note: this analysis was based on the GFS, the European model has everything shifted west about 75-100 miles. The models will converge as time nears. Also this is the how the models play it out as of now. The first snow is always the toughest to forecast so keep it here at midwest weather talk for updates leading up to the storm!

Thursday, November 3, 2011

Midwest Snowstorm Next week (Scenario 2)

The midwest storm during the middle of next week. This analysis will come from the european weather model. In this case the storm will track further to the west than the GFS model and is quite warmer, causing all rain in most places. The outlined area shows where rain may switch over to snow at night very minor snow totals. Also the storm will move slightly quicker, cause less time to usher in colder air from Canada. Be sure to check the previous post about scenario 1. As of now, i am leaning toward the european model based on the overall weather pattern. It does not seem likely for it to get cold enough, but if the low deepens enough we may have our first winter storm of the season. Keep it here to midwest weather talk for updates

Midwest Snowstorm Next week (Scenario 1)

In this possibility, a major snowstorm would occur in the midwest. Rain would break out on wed. and change over to snow at night, where 2-5" in the outlined area and 4-8" in northern IL and WI would be very likely if this model holds true. This is the more reliable model (GFS, american model) but that is not say it will surely happen. It will all come down to the track of the storm. Keep it here to midwest weather talk throughout the week for updates!

Sunday, October 30, 2011

Major Storm Likely in the Midwest Next Week

This weekend it was the northeast. Much of the northeast has seen over a foot of snow, and the highest total I could find was 31.4" in Jeffrey, New Hamspire. Next weekend looks to be the next big storm in the U.S, this time in the midwest. As of now,(still a week out) but this storm could be a early season record breaker. 6-12" of snow is possible, pretty much anywhere west of lake michigan, but the outlined area is the most likely area. Strong winds will also be a factor in IA, WI, and MN. Please note: this is an early season storm so the computer models are not always corect of the placement of storms. Anyone in the midwest should keep informed on this monster storm! keep it here to midwestweathertalk!

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Quiet Week Ahead in the Midwest and Great Lakes

Not much to say as far as weather in the midwest goes, except there will be a quick "clipper-like" low pressure to move through the northern midwest on sunday. It will bring rain showers to MN, WI, MI, IL, OH but will also pose the threat of snow in far northwest Wisconsin. Espically during the saturday night hours. It will then eventually warm up a tad during the middle of next week in the midwest, stay tuned for updates!

Worth Noting:

-> Hurricane Rina is getting ready to pound the Cancun area with winds 80-90mph. The hurricane then poses a threat to Florida next week
-> The Denver area got hit with up a foot a snow the past couple of days
-> The northeast is looking a 1-3" snow at the end of the week
-> Yes, winter is right around the corner

Monday, October 24, 2011

Update on Tuesday Night's Storm in Midwest (With snow)

Tuesday night's storm will bring the first rain/snow to parts if the midwest. Look for showers to brake out in MN Tuesday and move into WI, northen IL and MI by evening and overnight hours. The rain will eventually reach IN and Ohio by early Wed morning. On the FAR northern side of the storm snow will likely break out during the overnight hours. It will not be much but a dusting on grassy surfaces is possible by wed morning. Further out, there is also a chance of snow shower late in the week (Thursday night and Friday night) mainly in MN, WI, and MI. Also, the middle of next week the midwest may see a major warm up, temps 10-15 above normal are possible!Keep it here to midwest weather talk for updates!

Saturday, October 22, 2011

Next Week's Snow Possibilty In the Northern Midwest

The possibility of snow still looms in the northern great lakes. A low pressure will streak across country next week. The map on the left shows where the low will be tuesday night. Snow will be possible on the northwest side of the storm. What makes this even more likely is the fact that the storm will pass through in the overnight hours. The storm will also bring rain showers to areas in the south. Keep it here to midwestweathertalk!

Map notes:
The L shows the position of the storm ever 6 hours
The snow area shows where >.5" is at a 50% chance
The white L show the storm location Tuesday night
The green area shows amount of precipitation tuesday night
This is the 500-1000mb 18z GFS model map

Friday, October 21, 2011

Quiet Weekend Leads to a Mid-Week Storm, with the First Chance of Snow

After the long week of below normal temps, this weekend will be a pleasent change for many in the midwest. Look for temps to be about 5 degrees above normal throughout the midwest this weekend. Then later next week a weak storm will crawl out of the Rocky Mountains and drift up towards the midwest. The storm should be around the Chicago area wed at noon. Rain showers will break out in IL and WI and continue east throughout the week. Meanwhile, the is a chance for snow to break out in northern wisconsin and northern michigan. Although the chance is low and a lot has to come together for this to happen, it is still possible and about a 30% chance as of now. Even so, any snow would likely melt on contact, but it is a sure sign winter is right around the corner. Keep it here to midwestweathertalk for updates!

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Total Rainfall Wed Through Friday in Midwest and Great Lakes

As forecasted, the strong storm we have been looking at is finally here. Heavy rain will continue to fall in the eastern great lakes. See map on the left for exact totals in your city. The storm will drift west and then turn to up to the northeast. It will take a couple days to get out of the area and the wind and cold will finally be gone. Look for temps to return to above normal. Keep it here at midwestweathertalk!

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Tomorrows Big Storm in the Midwest

Nothing new here. I added the European model to show the placement of the low pressure is exactly the same, so uncertainty is very low. Heavy rains will erupt in IL, IN, MI, OH, and KY on wed and wed night, 1-3" will be seen here with up to 4" in southern MI. Elsewere will be the strong winds, gusts of 25-45mph can be expected here (35-55 along lake MI). I would expect wind advisories in parts of IL and WI tomorrow. And finaly, temps will run 5-15 degrees below normal in the whole midwest.

Monday, October 17, 2011

Tonight's Mid Week Storm Update

A deepening low pressure will pass through the Ohio River valley and bring strong winds to the midwest Wed and Thur. The counter clockwise spin in the low pressure will usher in cold air from Canada, due to the tight pressure gradient. The pressure of this storm will fall to near 992mb, which is equal to a low cat. 1 hurricane. Although this is a strong storm, there will be little rain/snow for the midwest, with the exception in IL, MI, IN, but strong winds will be the main widespread factor (see map) with winds 25-40mph. Wind advisories may be needed in parts of WI, IL, and MI. Keep it here to midwest weather talk, updated at least once a day.
Main Points:
~Wind gusts 25-40+ mph in circled area
~1-3" of rain in southern MI
~Temps to fall 5-15 degrees below normal throughout midwest

Sunday, October 16, 2011

More on next weeks east coast storm to bring cold air to midwest

Quick update tonight. The "on shore nor'easter" is still strong in all the models next week. A weak low pressure system will move through the center of the U.S and merge with a strong tropical low coming up from the gulf. The cold air will wrap around the system and dive south from Canada, it will come to the midwest on tuesday and stick around til friday. Temps will run 5-15+ degrees below normal. Parts of the midwest may see a few showers or even snow showers in MN or WI. Keep it tune to midwest weather talk.

Saturday, October 15, 2011

East Coast Storm to Usher in Cold Air

With the extened period of warm air in mid october, the recent colder air seems to be chilly for many. It will be even cold next week, with below normal temperatures throughout the midwest. A strong low pressure will pass through the middle of the country and turn up the east coast. With a counter-clockwise spin in the system, cold air will come down from Canada and winds will begin to shift in a northernly direction throughout the eastern half of the country. Overall, by next wed look for temps 5-15 degrees below normal.

Friday, October 14, 2011

When is the Average First snowfall?

For some, the thought of a first snowflake brings excitement and wonder into a snow lovers mind. In case you are wondering here are some average dates for the first snow in the midwest:

North Dakota, northern Minnesota: Mid October

Northern south dakota, Nebraska, central minnesota and northern wisconsin/U.P: Late October

Southern south dakota, southern minnesota, northern iowa, central wisconsin and central michigan: Mid November

Southern Iowa, Northern Illionis, southern wisconsin, southern michigan, and northern indiana: Late November

Everywhere else: mid december (if anything)

2011-2012 Winter Forecast/Outlook

Right off the bat i can say it going to be a cold and stormy winter. We are currently experiencing a la nina in the central Pacific and it is forecast to stay that way the rest of the winter. This occurs when the sea surface temps are 3-5 degrees below normal. The same was noted last year and the historic winters of 2008 and 2009. La ninas do lead to warm early falls, which has occured (8.1degrees above normal for many) so confidence is even higher. Basically, it will be below normal winter with a above average snowfall, for the midwest.

Thursday, October 13, 2011

Storm 1 moves out storm 2 next week

The night computer model run shows a the storm affecting the great lakes moving out by this weekend, but cold air will wrap around the system with strong northerly winds! We are now moving into a extended period of cold weather. Next week there is a slight chance of a snowstorm in WI and northern IL and MI. The problem right now is the storm is forecasted to pass to our south and not be far north enough to wrap around even cold air. The model runs have been showing this off and on, snow and no snow the past few days. Keep it here, but it looks to be a longshot for snow lovers.

Midwest Weather (in depth)

In this blog i will give you my thoughts on the weather in the coming weeks, with major trends and the possible storms in the near furture. When winter comes this is the best place to look for tell it like it is weather forecasting! Snowstorms can be tough to forecast, this is why you will never have a true forecast more then a couple days out on your local tv station. I look at the american model (GFS) and the european model (EURO) and sometimes canadian and japanese when major storms loom