Sunday, October 30, 2011

Major Storm Likely in the Midwest Next Week

This weekend it was the northeast. Much of the northeast has seen over a foot of snow, and the highest total I could find was 31.4" in Jeffrey, New Hamspire. Next weekend looks to be the next big storm in the U.S, this time in the midwest. As of now,(still a week out) but this storm could be a early season record breaker. 6-12" of snow is possible, pretty much anywhere west of lake michigan, but the outlined area is the most likely area. Strong winds will also be a factor in IA, WI, and MN. Please note: this is an early season storm so the computer models are not always corect of the placement of storms. Anyone in the midwest should keep informed on this monster storm! keep it here to midwestweathertalk!

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Quiet Week Ahead in the Midwest and Great Lakes

Not much to say as far as weather in the midwest goes, except there will be a quick "clipper-like" low pressure to move through the northern midwest on sunday. It will bring rain showers to MN, WI, MI, IL, OH but will also pose the threat of snow in far northwest Wisconsin. Espically during the saturday night hours. It will then eventually warm up a tad during the middle of next week in the midwest, stay tuned for updates!

Worth Noting:

-> Hurricane Rina is getting ready to pound the Cancun area with winds 80-90mph. The hurricane then poses a threat to Florida next week
-> The Denver area got hit with up a foot a snow the past couple of days
-> The northeast is looking a 1-3" snow at the end of the week
-> Yes, winter is right around the corner

Monday, October 24, 2011

Update on Tuesday Night's Storm in Midwest (With snow)

Tuesday night's storm will bring the first rain/snow to parts if the midwest. Look for showers to brake out in MN Tuesday and move into WI, northen IL and MI by evening and overnight hours. The rain will eventually reach IN and Ohio by early Wed morning. On the FAR northern side of the storm snow will likely break out during the overnight hours. It will not be much but a dusting on grassy surfaces is possible by wed morning. Further out, there is also a chance of snow shower late in the week (Thursday night and Friday night) mainly in MN, WI, and MI. Also, the middle of next week the midwest may see a major warm up, temps 10-15 above normal are possible!Keep it here to midwest weather talk for updates!

Saturday, October 22, 2011

Next Week's Snow Possibilty In the Northern Midwest

The possibility of snow still looms in the northern great lakes. A low pressure will streak across country next week. The map on the left shows where the low will be tuesday night. Snow will be possible on the northwest side of the storm. What makes this even more likely is the fact that the storm will pass through in the overnight hours. The storm will also bring rain showers to areas in the south. Keep it here to midwestweathertalk!

Map notes:
The L shows the position of the storm ever 6 hours
The snow area shows where >.5" is at a 50% chance
The white L show the storm location Tuesday night
The green area shows amount of precipitation tuesday night
This is the 500-1000mb 18z GFS model map

Friday, October 21, 2011

Quiet Weekend Leads to a Mid-Week Storm, with the First Chance of Snow

After the long week of below normal temps, this weekend will be a pleasent change for many in the midwest. Look for temps to be about 5 degrees above normal throughout the midwest this weekend. Then later next week a weak storm will crawl out of the Rocky Mountains and drift up towards the midwest. The storm should be around the Chicago area wed at noon. Rain showers will break out in IL and WI and continue east throughout the week. Meanwhile, the is a chance for snow to break out in northern wisconsin and northern michigan. Although the chance is low and a lot has to come together for this to happen, it is still possible and about a 30% chance as of now. Even so, any snow would likely melt on contact, but it is a sure sign winter is right around the corner. Keep it here to midwestweathertalk for updates!

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Total Rainfall Wed Through Friday in Midwest and Great Lakes

As forecasted, the strong storm we have been looking at is finally here. Heavy rain will continue to fall in the eastern great lakes. See map on the left for exact totals in your city. The storm will drift west and then turn to up to the northeast. It will take a couple days to get out of the area and the wind and cold will finally be gone. Look for temps to return to above normal. Keep it here at midwestweathertalk!

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Tomorrows Big Storm in the Midwest

Nothing new here. I added the European model to show the placement of the low pressure is exactly the same, so uncertainty is very low. Heavy rains will erupt in IL, IN, MI, OH, and KY on wed and wed night, 1-3" will be seen here with up to 4" in southern MI. Elsewere will be the strong winds, gusts of 25-45mph can be expected here (35-55 along lake MI). I would expect wind advisories in parts of IL and WI tomorrow. And finaly, temps will run 5-15 degrees below normal in the whole midwest.

Monday, October 17, 2011

Tonight's Mid Week Storm Update

A deepening low pressure will pass through the Ohio River valley and bring strong winds to the midwest Wed and Thur. The counter clockwise spin in the low pressure will usher in cold air from Canada, due to the tight pressure gradient. The pressure of this storm will fall to near 992mb, which is equal to a low cat. 1 hurricane. Although this is a strong storm, there will be little rain/snow for the midwest, with the exception in IL, MI, IN, but strong winds will be the main widespread factor (see map) with winds 25-40mph. Wind advisories may be needed in parts of WI, IL, and MI. Keep it here to midwest weather talk, updated at least once a day.
Main Points:
~Wind gusts 25-40+ mph in circled area
~1-3" of rain in southern MI
~Temps to fall 5-15 degrees below normal throughout midwest

Sunday, October 16, 2011

More on next weeks east coast storm to bring cold air to midwest

Quick update tonight. The "on shore nor'easter" is still strong in all the models next week. A weak low pressure system will move through the center of the U.S and merge with a strong tropical low coming up from the gulf. The cold air will wrap around the system and dive south from Canada, it will come to the midwest on tuesday and stick around til friday. Temps will run 5-15+ degrees below normal. Parts of the midwest may see a few showers or even snow showers in MN or WI. Keep it tune to midwest weather talk.

Saturday, October 15, 2011

East Coast Storm to Usher in Cold Air

With the extened period of warm air in mid october, the recent colder air seems to be chilly for many. It will be even cold next week, with below normal temperatures throughout the midwest. A strong low pressure will pass through the middle of the country and turn up the east coast. With a counter-clockwise spin in the system, cold air will come down from Canada and winds will begin to shift in a northernly direction throughout the eastern half of the country. Overall, by next wed look for temps 5-15 degrees below normal.

Friday, October 14, 2011

When is the Average First snowfall?

For some, the thought of a first snowflake brings excitement and wonder into a snow lovers mind. In case you are wondering here are some average dates for the first snow in the midwest:

North Dakota, northern Minnesota: Mid October

Northern south dakota, Nebraska, central minnesota and northern wisconsin/U.P: Late October

Southern south dakota, southern minnesota, northern iowa, central wisconsin and central michigan: Mid November

Southern Iowa, Northern Illionis, southern wisconsin, southern michigan, and northern indiana: Late November

Everywhere else: mid december (if anything)

2011-2012 Winter Forecast/Outlook

Right off the bat i can say it going to be a cold and stormy winter. We are currently experiencing a la nina in the central Pacific and it is forecast to stay that way the rest of the winter. This occurs when the sea surface temps are 3-5 degrees below normal. The same was noted last year and the historic winters of 2008 and 2009. La ninas do lead to warm early falls, which has occured (8.1degrees above normal for many) so confidence is even higher. Basically, it will be below normal winter with a above average snowfall, for the midwest.

Thursday, October 13, 2011

Storm 1 moves out storm 2 next week

The night computer model run shows a the storm affecting the great lakes moving out by this weekend, but cold air will wrap around the system with strong northerly winds! We are now moving into a extended period of cold weather. Next week there is a slight chance of a snowstorm in WI and northern IL and MI. The problem right now is the storm is forecasted to pass to our south and not be far north enough to wrap around even cold air. The model runs have been showing this off and on, snow and no snow the past few days. Keep it here, but it looks to be a longshot for snow lovers.

Midwest Weather (in depth)

In this blog i will give you my thoughts on the weather in the coming weeks, with major trends and the possible storms in the near furture. When winter comes this is the best place to look for tell it like it is weather forecasting! Snowstorms can be tough to forecast, this is why you will never have a true forecast more then a couple days out on your local tv station. I look at the american model (GFS) and the european model (EURO) and sometimes canadian and japanese when major storms loom