Wednesday, November 30, 2011
A medium strength storm will track through the midwest this weekend. It will bring a good amount of snow (4-8") to areas in the midwest. Right now the problem is computer models. One has the storm track up through central Iowa and Wisconsin, the other brings it through the Chicago area. Usually, the snow will occur about 100-150miles northwest of the track. The yellow outlined area includes both extremes. I am leaning towards the more reliable model (GFS). Meaning areas in the eastern part of the outlined area have a better chance of snow and more of a 3-6" snow in these areas. Hopefully the models will come together soon! Keep it here for updates
Sunday, November 27, 2011
The new model run is in. It shows over a foot of snow in some areas! That is likely overdone in this model, so I went with 5-10" in the outlined area. Check back later for updates!
This is a quick look at the NAM (north american model). The snow will break out Tuesday night and Wed. morning in southern parts of Michigan (see map). It will be a heavy wet snow and should rapidly accumulate after day break. Look for an update in about an hour on the new 18z GFS model run.
Thursday, November 24, 2011
This Weekend may bring a minor snowfall to parts of the northern Midwest. A storm system will streak across the country and nearly stall out over Michigan. It will start as rain on Saturday and switch over to snow showers on Sunday. The map shows the area where 1 to 3" of snow is possible. Lake enhancement will likely occur in the U.P of Michigan where 3-6" will be possible Sunday. Keep it here to Midwest weather talk for updates!
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
After the Holidays there is a chance of snow in the midwest. A low pressure will basically stall out somewhere over the midwest. Nearly impossible to forecast, this storm could bring a wide range to a wide area. I circled the area where the computer models show a change of rain to snow. Stay tuned for updates! Also, see the last post for a WARM Thanksgiving.
Sunday, November 20, 2011
For those who like warm weather, it is time to give thanks to mother nature for a great holiday weekend of weather. We are currently in a zonal flow (west to east flow in weather), but his will soon change. The relatively horizontal jet stream will bend northward causing a southerly wind and ultimately warm air. Temps will run 10 to 20 degrees above normal on Thanksgiving, throughout the whole midwest. A storm system may will then bring rain, and maybe snow to eastern parts of the midwest Saturday and Sunday and then colder air, but lets deal with that later. Enjoy the warmth, and keep it here at midwest weather talk!
Saturday, November 19, 2011
The snowstorm forecasted the past week has unfolded just as first thought. On the left is my snow forecast for tomorrow and tomorrow night. I would like to point out that in northern wisconsin amounts may reach 6" due to lake enhancement, other then that the map tells it all. Nothing else to mention for the rest of the week except: a warm up seems very likely on thanksgiving day! stay tuned!
Tuesday, November 15, 2011
After the cold air being dumped into the mid west tomorrow, another November storm will be slamming the northern mid west. The track has not moved more than 5 miles the past 4-5days so the snow map looks very good. Hopefully it will not have to be changed. The map shows the American model (GFS) on the left and the European model on the right. Both show about the same placement of the low, so confidence is even higher. Stay tuned for updates!
11/16: forecast still looks goods, but change the 4-8" to 3-6" with isolated 7" near the lakes.
Monday, November 14, 2011
Another November snowstorm is possible in the mid west this weekend. A strong low pressure will emerge from the Rockies and head northward. If this track holds snow will occur in the yellow outlined area. I will mention that the track has been shifting further east every model run so i would not be surprised to see this trend continue, so stay tuned. See the previous post for the impeding cold air this week...
12:03 AM: track still looks good, 4-9" is possible. check back for updates!
Sunday, November 13, 2011
This weekend was a pleasant one, weather wise in the Midwest. Places around Chicago were up near 70 and mid 60s in the Minneapolis area. Well, that is all about to change late this week. The northern jet will dip south for a few days and usher in colder air. Temps will run 5-10 degrees below normal in just about the whole mid west from wed-fri. Also there is a chance for a snow shower in northen parts of the mid west on monday night or tuesday night. Meanwhile, another storm is being watched for next weekend. More to come on this one, but a snowstorm is possible/likely. As of now it looks to hit northern Minnesota with several inches. Keep it here to Midwest weather talk!
Saturday, November 12, 2011
A low pressure in the Dakotas will spin up some warmer weather this weekend and early next week. The counter clockwise swirl in the winds will mean a southwest wind throughout the midwest which mean warmer weather! It is a week system s the warm up will not be much more than 5 or 10 degrees, but is certainly welcomed for many after the midweek snowstorm. Besides that, it looks to be a quite week in the midwest. Another snowstorm is possible next weekend in northern parts of the midwest (SD, ND, MN, WI). As of now 3-7" is possible, but it is still 8 days out so a good forecast is not easy. Never the less, a storm will be somewhere in the midwest next weekend, so stay tuned to midwest weather talk!
Wednesday, November 9, 2011
Not much to say tonight, the map of the storm totals speaks for it self. The deformation zone set up as forecasted, in central and northern wisconsin. As for the days ahead, it looks to warm up this weekend and ALL the snow should be gone in the next couple days. Besides the warm up it should be a quite week, nothing really showing up on the models. As always, keep it here to midwest weather talk!
Tuesday, November 8, 2011
11:51PM: forecast still looks good
Monday, November 7, 2011
Tuesday night and Wednesday will be the first snow for many in the midwest. A storm will emerge from the Rockies and head up towards Chicago and pass through wisconsin this week. Rain will overspread the area and change to snow in the northwest parts of the midwest (see map). The track has sifted west again, causing the snow amounts to increase. Currently it looks like up to 3-6" will be likely on grassy surfaces in the outlined area. All the models are narrowing in on the track so the forecasts looks good. It still may shift 10-15 miles west or east so stay tuned.
Sunday, November 6, 2011
A quick update this morning. A little fine tuning of the forecast, the average forecasted position of the low has shifted slightly to the east. I did not mention early, but this storm will come in two pieces. The first piece will be warm and all rain the second will start as rain and likely switch back to snow on the back side. 4 to 5 days ago it looked like it would all come in one piece, causing a winter storm with plently of moisture, but now the most someone may see is 3-4" compared to the 10-12" if it came as one big storm. Well anyways, it will be nearly an all rain event. More updates to come, keep i there to midwest weather talk!
Models are beginning to converge on a solution, but uncertainty is still not certain. The storm is tracking further west (cutting down on snow totals). Its that first storm model problem again. Last night it had near a foot of snow and tonight the gfs is putting down up to 5". The european and candian models continue to show the storm 20-30 miles west of the track shown in the picture, so that 1-3" amount could be generous if the american model is wrong. Hopefully by tomorrow afternoon's model runs the track will all be similar and we can give some definate snow total forecasts. Also, i said on the map that the storm could move east or west 50 miles, but i dont see it moving very far east. Maybe just east of chicago at most, but would not be surprised to see it over western wisconsin. So keep it here to midwest weather talk for updates.
Friday, November 4, 2011
Next week in the midwest could get very sloppy for some. As of now, the main computer models have the storm moving up from OK and passing through Chicago and then into Canada. The storm will outflow rain ahead of the system on tuesday. Tuesday night the main low pressure travels on to the north bringing cold air and the high likelyhood of snow. It will start as all rain for nearly everyone before changing to all snow for some (see map). The outlined yellow area shows a greater than 50% of snow and the orange area shows where the heaviest snow would occur. I put 4-7" as of now in the orange area. Believe it or not computer models have up to a foot of snow in this area, this is well overdone. Meanwhile, rain will occur in areas east of the yellow outline. Current estimations would have 1-2" of rain in these areas. Please note: this analysis was based on the GFS, the European model has everything shifted west about 75-100 miles. The models will converge as time nears. Also this is the how the models play it out as of now. The first snow is always the toughest to forecast so keep it here at midwest weather talk for updates leading up to the storm!
Thursday, November 3, 2011
The midwest storm during the middle of next week. This analysis will come from the european weather model. In this case the storm will track further to the west than the GFS model and is quite warmer, causing all rain in most places. The outlined area shows where rain may switch over to snow at night very minor snow totals. Also the storm will move slightly quicker, cause less time to usher in colder air from Canada. Be sure to check the previous post about scenario 1. As of now, i am leaning toward the european model based on the overall weather pattern. It does not seem likely for it to get cold enough, but if the low deepens enough we may have our first winter storm of the season. Keep it here to midwest weather talk for updates
In this possibility, a major snowstorm would occur in the midwest. Rain would break out on wed. and change over to snow at night, where 2-5" in the outlined area and 4-8" in northern IL and WI would be very likely if this model holds true. This is the more reliable model (GFS, american model) but that is not say it will surely happen. It will all come down to the track of the storm. Keep it here to midwest weather talk throughout the week for updates!