Saturday, December 31, 2011
A snow may be new to people in the Midwest. The New Year will feature brutal travel conditions with, wind, ice and snow. The lake affect machine will get going tomorrow with strong northwest winds off the lake, with up to 2 feet of snow likely in some areas. Otherwise a general 1-3" in wisconsin and Michigane with northern wisconsin seeing up to 4". After the snow ends expect winds to pick up and usher in the coldest air of the season. Take care driving tomorrow and have a great New Year!
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
"Active" weather pattern to begin tonight for the midwest. The first system will move through the midwest rapidly tonight and drop a dusting to an inch in most areas by daybreak and isolated amount over an ich in northern Wisconsin. The next low pressure area will be stronger and slightly slower, therefore dropping more snow in basically the same areas. Look for the heaviest axis of snow to fall in SE Wisconsin and Michigan with 1-4" to fall by saturday. This is the first "Alberta-like" clipper pattern to occur in this fasion this year, so some of the models are not in total agreement, but the first two clippers do appear to drop a somewhat decent amount of snow (see map). Now for the next clipper, model madness! the GFS shows a simple 1-3" and the NAM digs south, pulls up moisture and dumps it in Minnasota...showing 6-10". Crazy right? I guess we will have to see how the models play this one out the next 24-36 hours! Comment always welcome! :)
Monday, December 26, 2011
Clipper Update: It appears 2 clippers will affect the midwest at the end of the week. Models are still not in a total agreement, but the map below shows the most probable tracks. Each storm will generally bring 1-2" with small bands of up to 3" will be very likely. The snow will fall even and just north of the track of the low pressure, with these fast moving clipper systems. Don't look for much wind with these, but rather light winds that will blow a light and fluffy snow around. There is another shortwave system showing up in the models for next sunday, but we will deal with that one when the time comes. Stay tuned and check back for updates!
Sunday, December 25, 2011
Although there will not be a major winter storm in the midwest for awhile, small Alberta clippers will make there way through the midwest starting Thursday. These types of storms usually drop 1-3"/2-4" in most areas and are fast moving systems, with minor amounts of wind. It it possible that 3 systems will affect the area between Thursday and Sunday, but the computer models have had quite the struggle with this pattern change. I will say that the Canadian model is showing a winter storm over northern Minnasota this coming weekend, but this is the only model with this solution. So snow lovers, don't get your hopes up just yet. But the the extended snow drought has a good chance to end later this week!
Saturday, December 24, 2011
Next week the NAO (see last blog entry) does appear to at least go neutral, meaning conditions will be favorable snow midwest. Models are showing a stronger Alberta clipper next Friday and then another one for next Sunday. The sunday one could be a 4-7"? we will wait and see on that one. As for Friday, it appears that 1-3" will fall in the eastern great lakes and then strengthen and drop 2-4"/3-5" in areas of Wisconsin. Stay tuned for updates, and Have a great Holiday Weekend!
So where is all this snow we were suppose to have already? Better yet, when will the NAO go negative? See, we need the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to be negative so that low pressure systems can deepen and produce heavy snows in the midwest and northeast. Some of the models have the NAO going negative by the new year, see image. The NCEP is still forecasting an above normal snow for this winter in much of the midwest, but time will tell. If the current NAO stay positive look for temps to stay above normal and small storm systems, but nothing over 4-5". Hopefully that can change by the new year!
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
A cold front will provide just enough lift for snow to occur throughout the midwest tonight. Up to an inch can be expected is most places, maybe an inch and a half in isolated areas in the heaviest bands. The snow will fall mainly during the overnight hours (11:00pm-11:00am) and will accumulate during the early morning hours. Look for slick roads, as this may be the first snowfall of the year.
Saturday, December 17, 2011
The storm that had its sights on the midwest all week has decided to dive south. The storm will emerge out of the Rockies sunday night on move northeast over the week. Cold air will only be available in the panhandle area. The storm will be another wet one for the midwest. Keep it here for updates!
Thursday, December 15, 2011
A large storm will affect the midwest early next week. Leading to the chance of a white Christmas for many. As of now, the computer models are all over the place with this storm. The track ranges from 100 miles north to a 100 miles south of the track on the map. With that said, a band of snow (3-6"?)will occur somewhere, most likely in the blue shaded area. Even more impressive, the area of rain will be quite massive south of the track.
EDIT: storm shifted way south, about 80 miles
Monday, December 12, 2011
A "warm" strong system will affect the midwest with mainly rain for those affected. The storm will be relatively weak so the amount of cold air that can be pumped into the system will be low so the accumulating snow will only be in a small area. Rain amounts in the outlined section on the map will be a half inch to and inch, with isolated areas with slightly more. I will mention the the japanese has a stronger storm and heavy snow in northwest wisconsin, but this is the least reliable model so it will likely merge with the other models in a few days. Stay tuned for updates
Sunday, December 11, 2011
Winter Storm will take over much of the midwest wed and thur. Given the time of year, this storm will be on the warm side and most of the area will see rain or some kind of mix. Accumulating snow is still possible, most likely in western wisconsin and minnasota. This is still a strong storm so winds will be a factor for many. If this storm were to emerge in a few weeks we would be looking at a 8-12" snow, but instead will likely see a 2-4"/3-6" storm. Snow totals will be fine tuned as we get closer.
Friday, December 9, 2011
A winter storm still appears possible next week, but the computer models are having a tough time with this storm. The past few runs cut the storm up into Minnesota and the heaviest snow west of the Mississippi. This current model run brings the storm into the Chicago area with very heavy rain in northwest Indiana. The main problem with the models is the amount of phasing in the northern plains, basically the stronger the phasing the more north the storm will come. Right now the most probable track would bring the storm through Iowa and Wisconsin, with the heaviest snow in MN and northwest WI. With that said, a band of 6-12" is possible with a "Rocky Mountain" storms, but it appears that 4-8" of snow with be the most from this storm. Stay tuned hopefully the first snow map can be made next monday or tuesday!
Wednesday, December 7, 2011
A winter storm is starting to look more and more likely next week. The GFS has a strong low pressure over Chicago next wed. The rain/snow line appears to be off, which can happen with storms over a week away. I feel as the storm gets closer the line will set up as any other winter storm. As always with storms 8 days out alot can still happen, stay tuned for updates!
Monday, December 5, 2011
It is going to be a split week as far as temperature goes in the United States. The midwest will be cold and East will be warm. The Pacific Jet will dip south and allow colder air in from Canada. The opposite holds true for the eastern half of the country, the jet will lift north and allow warm gulf air into these areas.
Saturday, December 3, 2011
Friday, December 2, 2011
A very slight jog to the north has occurred in the track. Still thinking 3-6" for much of the Midwest that see snow. There will be a very sharp cut off on the east side of the snow swath due to rain mixing in. The snow will start on Saturday in the plains and work north into the upper Midwest Saturday night and into Sunday morning. The 18z GFS and 18z NAM are holding the same track in the latest model runs, so confidence is high. Check back here for updates!
Thursday, December 1, 2011
Models are finally beginning to come together this evening. This is my best snow forecast as of now. A Low pressure will track up from Texas and into the Great Lakes by Saturday night. It is not a very strong storm so winds will be minimal. It will, however, usher in colder air for the coming weeks. It is still a few days out so stay tuned. A 15-20 jog in the track could mean someone getting 4" instead of no snow at all.
2:32AM: new model run has storm more north, about 30miles. only one model model, but if this trend continues the snow map will be changed. stay tuned!