Monday, January 30, 2012

Warm, Warm Week for Midwest...then a storm??

A major warm spell is in progress in the midwest right now. It is 71 degrees right now in Omaha! Temps will run about 15-25 degrees above normal throughout much of the midwest on Tuesday. It will cool of slightly for Wed. but still expect temps to run about 15 degrees above normal for much of the week. Also, I am monitoring a storm that is seeming more and more likely for the weekend. It will be more of a rain maker, but accumulating snow is likely on the back side. Stay tuned for updates in the coming days!

Thursday, January 26, 2012

Light Snow Friday and Friday Night in the Midwest

An Alberta Clipper-like storm will move through the Midwest on Friday and Friday Night. A general 1-2" can be expected with up to 3" in central and northern Wisconsin. The snow will be the light and fluffy variety and any wind will cause it blow around.

Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Light Snow Possible on Friday in the Midwest

A quick hitting storm system can be expected for Friday. I would say that a general 1-3" can be expected in the "hardest hit" areas. Models are not in complete agreement on when and where this band will set up. The darkest blue on the map indicates the most likely area of 1-3". Lake enhancement will likely occur in western Michigan either way. Keep it here to midwest weather talk for more updates!

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Quite Week Weatherwise in the Midwest

Not much to say today, a quite week is on hand for most of the midwest. It will be above average for most of the week. The temps will then turn colder for this weekend and Saturday night looks to be the coldest. Besides that, only a chance of light snow on friday.

Thursday, January 19, 2012

Winter Storm Friday, Midwest and Great Lakes

A cold winter storm will strike the Midwest on Friday and Friday night. The snow will develop in the Dakotas and work east and south east throughout the day on Friday and continue into the night for eastern areas. This time around the snow will be very light and fluffy. This will result because of high snow to water ratios, 15:1 to 18:1 for most of the event and many areas north will see ratios reach 20:1 by the end of the event. A normal winter storm brings 10:1 ratios. This storm will produce an isolated band of heavy snow, right now it appears that this band will hit the WI/IL border. The main weather models are coming together, but there are minor differences in amounts and locations of the snow. Never the less, they are in good agreement so confidence is relatively high. This may change ever so slightly so stay tuned to Midwest weather talk!

Edit 2:18pm: one of the main computer model (18z NAM) has trended north, something to be watch as the next models role on in. Update around 6:00-7:00 may be needed.

Edit 10:04pm: very slight shift north, and expansion west (see map)

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Very Active Pattern in Progress in the Midwest and Great Lakes

An active pattern has now set itself up in much of the northern half of the country. Seattle is seeing their heaviest snows in a quarter century and will continue to get bombarded with storms these storms will then progress WSW into the great lakes and northeast. The storms will bring usually bring a quick warm up followed by snow/rain followed by colder air. Meanwhile, the southern half of the country will stay warm and relatively inactive. The pattern looks to stick around for at least two weeks so get ready!

Monday, January 16, 2012

Updated Snow Map for Midwest and Great Lakes

Tomorrow will bring a wide area of light snow to much of the Midwest. The low will deepen over lower Michigan and drop moderate snows, 3-5" isolated 6". This storm will bring bands of snow, especially in eastern Wisconsin. Look for a general 1-3", but a few places that get caught under these bands could see 4". Meanwhile, the U.P of Michigan will see lake effect snow all week and areas south of snow, like Chicago will see a wintry mix change over to all snow by the afternoon. Keep it here to midwest weather talk!

Edit: with new model in, added central Iowa to the 1-3".

Sunday, January 15, 2012

Light Snow Expected Tuesday

A storm system will take a perfect track for heavy snow in the Midwest, but will move too quickly to deepen enough. This will lead to minimal snow amounts throughout the midwest. The storm will produce bands of snow which are very tough to forecast, but a general 1-3" can be expected in many areas, with 2-4" possibly 5" in northern Michigan. Areas on the west of the map can expect less than those on the east side. This is true because the low will deepen as it progresses to the east. Confidence is high with this forecast, but models range from a dusting to 6" of snow! So keep it here to midwest weather talk!

Friday, January 13, 2012

Next Winter Storm Potential in the Midwest

I am going out on a limb tonight with this one. Although there is plenty of uncertainty about the upcoming winter storm chance i am thinking the Midwest has a good shot at snow. It is only showing up on half the models. Current trends suggest that the other models will catch on to the winter storm solution in the next few days. Assuming this is true, a wide area of snow will break out in Iowa and move up into the great lakes on Tuesday. Possibly dropping something like 2-5" in heaviest areas. Of course it is 5 days out so snow amounts are impossible to pin down. Along the track of the low a wintery mix will change to snow, areas like Chicago and Grand Rapids. You are going to want to keep up to date with this one! We have you covered at Midwestweathertalk!

Thursday, January 12, 2012

Updated Midwest and Great Lakes Snow Map

Map Highlights:

1) Heaviest (nonlake enhanced) axis of snow will occur along the WI/IL border chance of 8" there

2) Lake enhanced snow will bring totals to a foot in the dark red

3) Most of the snow is done in far western Wisconsin, central Iowa, and eastern Minnesota

4) We are watching NE IL and SE Wisconsin, totals have a chance of reaching 9" but these areas would be isolated so we left the map as is.But if you live here expect 5-8"

5) Still 24 more hours of snow to come for most people so keep it here for updates!

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Great Lakes Winter Storm on the Door Step

Expect snow to break out thursday morning and continue on into friday. Temperatures will crash all day on thursday leading to a fluffy snow. As the low deepens over Michigan strong winds will really get going, which will lead to blowing and drifting in eastern Wisconsin. Final totals will generally be 3-7" with the highest in southwest wisconsin and areas will lake effect/enhancement will kick in.

Edit: 12:48am forecast still looks good

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Great Lakes Winter Storm, Wisconsin to be Hardest Hit

A very strange and complicated storm system to dump snow in the Great Lakes on Thursday and Thursday night, possibly lingering into Friday. An upper level low will move in from Canada and merge with a piece of a storm system coming up from the Ohio River Valley to form a surface low pressure over Michigan. This weather maker will drift west and likely stall out over Michigan for several hours before moving out into Canada. In the meantime, light to moderate snow will set up just west of the center. Look for deformation zone will set up over east Wisconsin. A cold front will move in from Canada during the system and temps will fall off all of Thursday. The low temps will cause for high snow ratios, in other words the snow will fluff up. The light fluffy snow will be easily blown around especially over eastern Wisconsin. Generally look for 4-8" in Wisconsin, with less to the south. We are expecting winter weather advisories to be issued before daybreak. So stay tuned!

First Winter Storm in the Great Lakes this Year!

Alright, here we go. The first winter storm is starting to shape up for this wed/thur. Four of the five most reliable models are showing this solution...Two storms will come together over Michigan and deepen. The strong low pressure will be stationary for awhile and dump snow on wisconsin and northern Illinois. With artic air filtering in snow ratios will be very high, meaning the snow will fluff up adding to the totals. Right now totals in eastern wisconsin will range from 3-11"! Yes i know that is a terrible forecast but lets break it down. Overall i am going with 4-8" in eastern wisconsin and slightly less in northeast Illinois. The main computer model spits out 10" in many areas, but some only show 3-6". It will all depend on how long it takes the low pressure to exit Michigan, we will see. Expect a snow map tomorrow!

Monday, January 9, 2012

Comparing 2011 to 2012, Using Snow Depth

It's January 9th and places like Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan can be seen with golfers hitting the links. Yes, with temperatures soaring to 50 again in many areas in the midwest more and more golf courses are opening up there greens for play. Now wait a second, shouldn't these places have a solid snow depth by now? It's the middle of January! Yes, is an understatement. It was about this time last year that all 50 states (excluding Florida) had snow somewhere in their state! As for the midwest, I think the map speaks for itself. Pretty much nowhere has snow, except for areas where lake effect snows can be seen. There are many reasons why we are in a snowless pattern. I believe the main reason is the indexes of teleconnections like the NAO, AO, and PNA. They have been in the positive range all winter. In contrast they were mostly negative the past record setting winters of 2008 and 2011. Furthermore, we have has a strong polar vortex which leads to a zonal flow (west to east wind pattern) in much of North America. This pattern leads to warm weather because it is very hard for cold air in Siberia and northern Canada to dive south into the continental United States. There are signs of a pattern change in a week or so, but it is hard to say how long it will stick around. If you are a snow lover like me, i feel for ya! We still have two and half months to make up for it..So keep it here to midwest weather talk.

Sunday, January 8, 2012

Strong Storm System Late Next Week

The storm with the snow potential appears to be more of a rain maker for much of the eastern half of the country. The low pressure system will work northeast from southern Texas up towards the Ohio Valley. In the meantime, a secondary upper level low will develop in northern parts of the midwest bringing light snow (1-3"). Although models are nudging the track of the storm more west with every run, the chance of a midwest winter storm are very low. Anyways, look for some light snow late this week to be followed by cold air by thursday.

Thursday, January 5, 2012

Possible Snowstorm Late Next Week

There will be a major storm late next week ahead of the coldest air of the season. As of now, all the MAJOR weather models are showing the storm to ride up the east coast. This just does not make sense, with the NAO neutral the weather pattern would not favor this scenario. It is possible that the storm will cut up the Ohio Valley or Great Lakes. Furthermore, some models are showing a low pressure systems winding up in the northern great plains, this "could" also pull the southern storm more north. Either way after the storm passes cold air will filter into most of the country. There is a lot going on with this complex storm, so basically anything can happen. Will definitely know more by late this weekend! Keep it here to midwest weather talk.

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Warm Up for the Midwest is Coming, Maybe Two of them?

Another warm up is headed to the Midwest and pretty much the whole eastern 2/3 of the country. High pressure will dominate weather on the southeast and pump up warmer air to the rest of the country thursday and friday. Temperature is most places will run about 15 degrees above normal. Although the warm up will only last a couple days (due to a week cold front) an even larger warm up appears to be on the way for early next week before the coldest air of the season by late next week that may bring a storm with it? So to sum up: warm...average...warmer...storm?...very cold. As of now most models have the storm system moving up the east coast with 6-12" in New York and Pennsylvania, but that may change. Keep it here to midwest weather talk!

Monday, January 2, 2012

Get Ready Midwest and Northeast, a Snowy Pattern Change is Coming

Everyone has been asking, "Where is the snow?! I thought is was going to be an above average year." They mention how it's a La Nina year and how that is suppose to bring above average snow. Well this is not exactly true. It depends more on teleconnections, especially the NAO (north atlantic oscillation). It is true that La Nina years do tend to bring more snow and larger variations in temperatures, but La Nina is usually accompanied by a negative NAO. Models are showing the NAO index to kick over to negative or at least neutral by the end of next week. Once that happens conditions will be favorable for winter storm development. Not saying we will for sure have a big storm, but we are on our way! Not much is showing up in the models through the next two weeks, but I expect that to change once the models take into account the negative NAO! Keep it here to Midwest weather talk!

Sunday, January 1, 2012

New Year Day Cold Wind Storm in the Midwest

Going to be quite the windy day for the Midwest this New Years. The low pressure that brought the snow overnight will deepen even more during the afternoon. The tight pressure gradient will allow winds to howl all day long. Typically look for sustained winds of 20-40mph with gusts to 50mph. Parts of Iowa will see winds approach 65mph, sustained to 35-50mph. (Sustained is average wind gust over a minute and wind gusts are how fast the wind can get at that moment) With the wind will come the coldest air of the season! Winds chills with be below zero for many and temps Monday night will also fall below zeros in northern sections. Furthermore the northerly wind will make for a long fetch over the lakes; dumping crazy amounts of snow (see last post). Keep warm and keep it here to Midwest weather talk!