Thursday, March 29, 2012

Quick Hitting Spring Snow

Before the massive warm up late this weekend, a quick hitting snow will fall in the upper great lakes. Nothing more than a few inches will fall, but it will bring a taste of reality, at least for a night.
Southerly winds will pump more warm air on sunday and monday. A cold front will then progress through the midwest and could spawn strong thunderstorms on monday before more cold air. It will be a roller coaster of weather the next 5 days.

Saturday, March 17, 2012

Record Breaking Warmth to Continue til Midweek

The historic warm spell will continue till about Wednesday, when a week cold front moves through. Many records were broken, including all time winter high temps and all time March temps in some places.
Some of the records include:

Chicago: 3/14..(81) 3/15.. (81) 3/16..(82) 3/17..(80)

Madison: 3/14..(78) 3/15..(81) 3/16..(79) 3/17..(79)

Minneapolis: 3/10..(66) 3/11..(66) 3/13..(67) 3/14..(73) 3/16..(79) 3/17..(79)

There have been over 1,500 records in the past week, many record highs and record high morning temps and earliest 80 degrees ever in places like Madison. This textbook warmth will continue to break and shatter records til about Wednesday, but the cool down will still leave temps 20-35 degrees above normal. Compared to the 45 degrees above normal in some place.

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

The Record Breaking Warmth will Continue.

The warm spell that brought record warmth to areas like Green Bay, Minneapolis, and Marquette (Even with 2 feet of snow on the ground!) will continue for the the next week and beyond. Computer models are suggesting that a south wind will be constant for the next 2 weeks and pump warm air up from Texas and the Gulf Coast. Tomorrow looks to be the warmest in much of the midwest with 80s in Iowa and Illinois. It appears we are heading into a more El nino like pattern, and winter may be over. No reason to think otherwise, except for climatology...

Friday, March 9, 2012

Very Warm and Extended Period of Warm Weather

From here on out, winter could basically be over. Temps will run well above normal for the next 10+ The only possible cool down appears to occur around march 21st, but even then it will be modest. The map on the left shows the max temp for the next week. The 70 degree line should be lifted north to include Green Bay and Minneapolis.

Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Climate Change Computer Simulation

Over the past few weeks I ran a climate simulation using a computer program called EdGcm. It basically lets you change factors that contribute to global warming and project them into the future. The increase of CO2 over the past 50 years has been slowly increasing over the years. Last year it increase by about 1.8ppm (parts per million). In this simulation i used and increase of 2.0ppm over the next 90 years. The video shows the effect of this increase in 2100. Basically, if we do nothing these are the effects we can expect...

better quality video here:

Friday, March 2, 2012

Storm Totals and Forecast for Tonight

By City:

Chicago: a slushy inch possible
Milwaukee: 5-7"
Madison: 4-7"
Green Bay: 4-6"
Waterloo: 1-2"
Cedar Rapids: ~1"
Traverse City: 9-12"
Muskegon: 3-6"

Thursday, March 1, 2012

Friday's Snow Forecast

A strong low pressure will move through the Midwest tomorrow and tomorrow night. It will bring areas of heavy snow in Wisconsin and Michigan. The storm will produce a dangerous severe weather outbreak tomorrow. Southern Ohio and Kentucky could see the worst of it with a record breaking tornado outbreak possible. Conditions are off the charts, hopefully it does not materialize. With that said some of these thunderstorms may rotate up into the cold air dumping even heavier amounts of snow. There MAY be some areas up to 10" if thundersnow develops.