Monday, April 30, 2012

Severe Weather Likely This Week

A warm and stormy week is in store for much of the midwest this week. The storms will really get going on Tuesday. The storm is emerging from the Rockies right now and will rapidly develop tonight and tomorrow. Damaging winds and hail appear to be the highest threat. The storm will then progress north east into Canada and the severe threat will shift East on Wednesday. Stay tuned for updates.

Thursday, April 19, 2012

Thursday Night Snow

Winter is not quite over, just yet. The widespread rain will change over to a mix of rain and snow overnight. Wisconsin areas will see the most snow, with up to 4 inches possible. Areas to the south will see a brief mix, but nothing that should affect travel. The snow will not stick around long, but may fall heavily during overnight hours.

Tuesday, April 17, 2012

Two Rounds of Heavy Rain

Two rounds of heavy rain will affect the Midwest over the next few days. A storm system will dive south from Canada overnight and spread rain into the upper Midwest and Great Plains, especially in Minnesota. Up to an inch of rain can be expected. A flood threat does exists in the arrowhead of Minnesota due to the snow storm Sunday night that dumped up to 11". The system will then rapidly continue into Canada and the rain should be down by Wednesday night, then we look ahead to Thursday stronger low pressure.

The next storm will come out of the Rockies on Thursday morning, rain will then develop Thursday afternoon. The system will rapidly intensify as it move towards the east and eventually the midwest. Heavy rain will fall across a large area, but up to 2" is possible in southern Wisconsin and northern Illinios. We do need to watch for the chance up snow on the northern side of the storm. If enough cold air can wrap in, an accumulating snow is possible Thursday night. stay tuned.

Monday, April 16, 2012

Heavy Snow Sunday Night

From the same storm that brought the 100+ tornadoes over the weekend and brought heavy rain and flooding to local areas, also dumped up to 11" of snow in northern Minnesota. Here is a radar estimated map of the total snow fall. It did a good job correlating to ground measurements. Some more snow or a mix MAY hit the upper Midwest on Thursday, stay tuned for that! here are some of the higher snow amounts:

11.00" 3 E ORR MN ST. LOUIS 0601 AM
11.00" 4 N CHISHOLM MN ST. LOUIS 0529 AM
10.00" TOGO MN ITASCA 0518 AM
8.00" COOK MN ST. LOUIS 0600 AM
7.50" WIRT MN ITASCA 0730 AM

Friday, April 13, 2012

MAJOR Severe Weather Outbreak the Weekend

It is looking very likely that the midwest and great plains will see major severe weather, with the likelihood of strong long track tornado in Kansas and Oklahoma. Many of the tornado may be wedge tornado, which can stay on the ground for an hour or more and be a half mile to mile wide. As a now saturday looks to be the worst of the two days. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has already put a "high" for severe weather on saturday. They use the "high" risk about 5 times a year. Last time the high risk was included in a day 2 outlook there were over 90 tornado reports. This truely could be a historic April 14th, especially with the highest risk area in the most populated section of Kansas and Oklahoma.
The closed low then progresses up into the upper Mississippi River valley and brings warm moist air along with it. The severe risk will shift into MN, IA, IL, and WI. large hail and damaging winds appear to be the largest threat here. The SPC has a slight risk for severe weather, mostly because its 3 days out. I would expect this to become a moderate risk as confidence grows. A moderate risk is very uncommon for these areas, maybe 3-4 times a year.
What to expect:
~3 rounds of showers and thunderstorms in much of the midwest
~2 rounds of strong thunderstorms with sunday afternoon being the highest risk time period
~over an inch of rain, the 3 day forecast is included in the picture above

Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Yet Another Deep Freeze in the Midwest

Another artic high pressure will drift southeast into the midwest and mid atlantic tonight. Be sure to cover or bring in tender plants. Besides this, weather will continue to be quiet with just a passing shower or light thunderstorm in the next week.

Friday, April 6, 2012

Cold Night in Eastern Areas

It will be a harsh freeze for many in the eastern midwest. Freeze warnings are up for hundreds of counties. Areas in the west will not fall below freezing due to the clouds acting as a blanket for warm air.

Tuesday, April 3, 2012

Quiet Weather Week Ahead

More of the same, quiet weather. We have not been able to talk much about weather lately, simply because of the fact that it has been so calm with no major storms. This will continue into the weekend. Temperature will be about 5-10 degrees above average in most places. In the shaded area scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected throughout the week, otherwise quiet everywhere else into the weekend. A high pressure system will drift into the upper midwest which will lead to ample sunshine and clear nights. The cloudless nights will allow warm air to rise up into space and cool the surface. Many areas will see below freezing temperatures over the next few days, so be sure to bring those plants in if you live in these areas. Monitor your local forecasts, OR Comment below with your city, and someone will be sure to give you a personal forecast!