Saturday, November 24, 2012

Snow Map For Tonight

Expect some snow during the evening and overnight hours. 1-2" has fallen in northern Minnesota at this hour.

Wednesday, November 21, 2012

Transition Thanksgiving, Cold to Come

Enjoy Thanksgiving, not only for the food and family, but likely the warmest day for much of the Midwest til early Spring. Temperature will reach record highs in many areas. Once the cold front moves through winds will shift from the southwest to the north, and usher in a much colder air mass  This transformation will occur during black Friday hours, so don't be surprised if it cools off rapidly as you are out and a bout. The areas in green may see some scattered showers during peak shopping time, as many stores open at 8pm Thursday night. Furthermore, we are watching a storm next week, with snow. Stay tuned over the weekend!

Friday, November 16, 2012

Midwest Winter Forecast!

Here it is, the winter forecast.
This forecast was done through a process called ensembling. Multiple forecasts were evaluated and average out to make the forecast you see on the left. Earlier this fall many weather outlets were thinking there would be a moderate El nino, which would lead to above average temperatures and below average snow. That forecast will likely prove to be inaccurate because the latest forecast done by NOAA and the CPC is predicting a very weak El nino to no El nino. Overall, it will likely be a somewhat normal onw in the midwest, with areas of cold and above average snow.
The graph on the right show the NAO (north atlantic oscillation). In simple terms, a positive value means quite weather and a negative value mean stormy and cold, for the most part. Since it has been negative for much of the fall, the start of the winter should include such values. This will lead to the worst of the winter to occur in December an January. The large winter storms will likely occur early and then transition to "clipper" systems to end the winter in February and March. These storms usually track on the blue arrow above.

11/25/2012 update: The NAO is negative and forecasted to fall even more negative, look for a stormy December.


Here is one indicator of a snowy winter possibly ahead of us. The more snow to our north, the colder it will be in the midwest. The snow reflects incoming radiation instead of absorbing. This leads to colder temperature overall.

Here is one model depiction of snowfall through Christmas. The area in brown shows a snow depth of 10" or more. This goes along with the negative NAO and weakening el nino. Many computer models are showing an active start to the month beyond the 5th. We will have to wait and see how the storms pan out, but it is looking like a snowy month.

Warm Thanksgiving Week

The weekend and next week will bring a strong warm up. The jet steam will surge north allowing for strong southerly winds. The warmest day will be Tuesday in the plains and Wednesday in midwest/great lakes. A storm system will then move through on Friday, bringing rain and much colder temperature from Canada. Generally it will be dry so traveling should not be a problem. Maybe some scattered showers on Sunday night into Monday in Wisconsin and Illinois, but nothing much. Stay tuned to for any updates on the Thanksgiving forecast!

Friday, November 9, 2012

Blizzard Update

Another update on the first real blizzard for the northern plains. There have been many snow totals of over 10" the same can be expected in far northern parts of North Dakota. For the most part the area in the green will be battling a wintery mix before changing over to snow that will accumulate up to a few inches. Another problem with this storm in the strong winds. Although much of the snow will be a heavy wet snow, blowing snow will be a problem. Gusts up to 40mph are likely. This storm will then push east and bring heavy rain to much of the midwest. Keep it here for updates!

Snow Totals (as of 12:50):
Crosby, ND: 15.0 inches
Williston, ND: 12.0 inches
Rapid City, SD: 2.4 inches

Thursday, November 8, 2012

Weekend Storm Update

Storm update: quick update tonight. It is going to be an all out blizzard in Montana and northwest North Dakota. Some snow may fall on the back side of the heavy rain Sunday night into Tuesday  See last post for more information

Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Weekend Storm for Plains and Midwest

A strong storm system will move into the area this weekend. Very heavy snow will break out behind the system on Friday in areas north west of North Dakota, including parts of the state it self. Enough cold air may work in to drop a couple inches in all of the light  blue area, especially in the darker blue. Ahead of the storm temperature will soar 10-20 degrees above average in much of the Midwest. Friday, Saturday, and Sunday will be warm, with Saturday the warmest in most areas. Then Saturday and Sunday will bring heavy rain as the cold front pushes in. Rain totals will approach and maybe exceed an inch in the green area on the map. Be sure to keep it here for updates throughout the week. You can also like our new facebook page: Facebook page

Monday, November 5, 2012

Some Light Snow/Mix for Election Day

As some of you head out to the pole expect some snow and/or a mix. In northern Minnesota most of you will wake up to a fresh dusting of snow on grassy surfaces. The precipitation will then shift south and east into Wisconsin (a swing state...). Will weather affect the pole? With that said don't expect much of an impact on travel as everything will be light (a few bursts of heavier snow/rain are possible). Furthermore, ground temperatures are still well above freezing so the only accumulation will be on grassy areas. Total snow amounts will not be much up to 2" in northern Minnesota and an inch or so in northern Wisconsin. A piece of energy will then dive south and merge up to form a coastal storm for the eastern seaboard. Although latest models have the storm more out to sea, this is something the people are New Jersey and New York were fearful of. Keep it here to Midwest Weather and if anything changes, this post will be updated.

10:51 update: brand new computer models have the northeast storm out to sea, with rain and gusty winds right along the shore. Is this a trend? Or a hiccup in the model? We will know for sure probably by tomorrow and model come together on this complex storm system.