Sunday, December 30, 2012

2012's Last Snowfall

Another weak system will impact parts of the Midwest on New Years Eve. A trough of low pressure will emerge from the Rockies and begin to weaken almost simultaneously. However, there will be enough moisture to squeak out a plowable snowfall for some.  If banding sets up perfectly, the way it is shown in the models, the area of 3"+ may see up to 5" of the white stuff. There are winter weather advisories out for a wide area, given the timing and mass travel that will be occurring during the snow. Use caution and as always, give yourself some extra time when venturing out.

Friday, December 28, 2012

Snow Maker Winding Down

The storm system that brought snow to northern parts of the Midwest is coming to an end. It is just about snowing itself out. We had a couple areas of lake effect and lake enhancement. The arrowhead of Minnesota saw up to 6". There were a few band off southern Lake Michigan which brought a few inches to may areas there. And finally, we are seeing some feeder bands near Green Bay which is added to totals this evening. From Green Bay to Oshkosh to Sheboygan in Wisconsin, totals will generally be in the 6-8" range.

Thursday, December 27, 2012

Light Snow Update

Models are coming in a little more aggressive with snow ratios and water content. We had to bump up totals generally by an inch from Milwaukee to Sioux Falls. Because it will be such a widespread light snow, the snow forecast on the left has overlapping totals. This was the best way to provide the most accurate forecast. Here are a few forecasts for some of the larger cities:
Sioux City: 3-5"
Madison/Milwaukee/Rochester: 2-4"
Minneapolis/Green Bay: 1-2"
Omaha/Des Moines: icy inch

Wednesday, December 26, 2012

Weak System Moving Through

Some of you will see a light fluffy snow accumulate in your backyard today or tomorrow. A very weak system will be moving through Thursday and Friday  It will not have much moisture to work with and will not have favorable conditions for intensification. However, some places may squeak out a 5" amount. There are winter weather advisories out for north west Iowa and counties nearby. As the low pressure center moves through it will actually weaken so amounts to the east will be lesser. However, the area from northern Iowa to Milwaukee will have to be watched. It may need to be included in the 2-5" portion. Stay tuned!

Monday, December 24, 2012

Winter Storm Forecast

Quick update with a snow forecast today. Hope everyone is having a good Christmas Eve. Models are narrowing down the heavy band so we felt we could make our first snow map for the storm. Uncertainty is down to about 25 miles north/south. So the map on the left looks pretty concrete. Winter storm watches, warning and blizzard watch are in effect. Stay tuned fore updates.

Sunday, December 23, 2012

Winter Storm After Christmas

A strong winter storm will move through parts of the Midwest on Tuesday night and Wednesday. The storm will come out of the Rockies and deepen as it will have full access to gulf moisture as it moves northeast. It looks like there will be a narrow band of heavy snow with this storm. It will be tough to pinpoint the exact location of this plowable snow, but it does appears 4-8"+ will fall. A secondary low pressure system will likely develop on the east coast and widen the area of snow. Never the less, expect winter storm watches to begin being posted by the national weather service some time tomorrow.

Saturday, December 22, 2012

Light Snow then a Storm?

A very weak system will touch off a little light snow from  North Dakota to lower Michigan, not much for accumulation (dusting to an inch) but it may provide a snow shower on Christmas Eve. Then attention turns to the next system surging out of the Rockies on Tuesday. It will dip south and head towards the Ohio Rover Valley on Wednesday. The potential exists for several inches of snow from Arkansas to Ontario. Some areas may see 6". We will have more as the storm gets closer. Another storm is also showing for next weekend, taking a similar track of the latest blizzard. Stay tuned!

Friday, December 21, 2012

The Blizzard of 2012 Summary

Well, the blizzard is done but the clean up is still occurring  This winter storm did pan out as expected and some of the total are very impressive. Reaching a central pressure of 982mb, perfect scenerio of a system in the Midwest producing heavy snow. The same storm produced severe weather and tornado as far south as Florida. The cloud field reached from the gulf a Mexico to southern Canada. Madison, WI had the highest total with 20", with the help of a couple thunderstorms wrapping into the cold air right on top of them. Thundersnow was pretty common with this system. We will continue to update you throughout the winter

Wednesday, December 19, 2012


Snow totals were increased in this update, The blizzard of 2012 shows no signs on weakening. The snow is already falling in the Plains and will move in by the evening for many areas, then continue through Thursday evening. Many areas will see about a foot of snow, with up to 18" if areas from Iowa to Green Bay. Keep Safe!

PS: Keeping an eye on a possible storm next week...stay tuned!

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Crippling Blizzard Thursday

A crippling blizzard is going to strike the Midwest Wed/Thur. Central Iowa up to Green Bay looks to be the hardest hit. MANY areas will see a foot of more of snow, with winds gusting over 40mph. Blowing and drift will be a problem and some travel may be impossible. Schools will close Thursday and drifts to 4 feet can be expected. Models are finally coming together on the track, so the snow map was made with a good amount of confidence. We will narrow down amounts and the storm gets closer. Expect blizzard warnings to go in effect starting Wed night.

Monday, December 17, 2012

Winter Storm Update

Still on track, the first major winter storm will begin to impact the Midwest Wednesday night and last through Thursday. The snow forecast is based on the most likely track (the middle black line). The red cone is the range of track computer models are showing. If the track shifts, the heavy snow band will also shift. With that in mind, it does look likely that someone will get 10-14". It is just impossible to pin down the heavy snow band with a variance in computer models. After the storm passes, cold air will crash in and lead for a cold weekend. Stay tuned for updates!

Sunday, December 16, 2012


A major winter storm will strike the Midwest Wednesday night into Thursday. It will likely lead to blizzard warnings in some areas. The models do still have some differences in the track of the system. The map in the left show the MOST LIKELY scenario and should be used a a reference. With that said, someone will get over a foot of snow and the dark blue will possibly see 6-12" if the track holds. With the mild winter last year, this will likely shape up as the largest winter storm in almost 2 years. You are going to want to stay tuned for updates throughout the week!

Saturday, December 15, 2012

Major Winter Storm Shaping up for Late Next Week

It is starting to look more and more probable for a winter storm, that will bring a white Christmas for many. Models are starting to come together on the track. The map on the left shows the cone of possible tracks of this system. The most likely track brings it from the Rockies through Missouri to Chicago to central Michigan. Where ever the track ends up, snow should fall heavily about 50-75 miles north of the track, with the possibility of 6"+ in a large area. This is the historic track of strong winter storms in the Midwest. Stay tuned for updates throughout the week, also you can like our Facebook page for more updates! ------->

Sunday Evening Update: Storm still on track, favoring the southern side of the cone. Storm totals will likely top a foot in some areas. STAY TUNED!

Friday, December 14, 2012

Weekend Storm Update

Looks like most of the warm air is going to win out in this system. Mostly rain, for much of the midwest. However, A wintery mix is likely in southern MN and northern WI. Even further north the snow will accumulate on grassy surfaces up to 5" is some spots, maybe 6" in the heavy bands. Freezing rain shouldn't be to much of an issue as the atmosphere is not set up quite right for it. In general, it looks like a wet weekend for many people.

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Weekend Storm Jogs a Little North

Not much has changed since the last post. However the storm did jog a touch north, dragging the snow north. Amount still looks to be in that 3-6" range somewhere, we will narrow that down tomorrow. Also, the storm looks to slow down and wrap cold air around, maybe before the precipitation ends, meaning there is a chance for a mix or snow towards the end of the event in Iowa and Southern Wisconsin. Meanwhile, somewhat heavy rain will fall south of the track, about 0.5"-1.0" likely in many areas. The warm December continues for many..

Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Weekend Storm

Another, weaker, storm system looks to impact the area this weekend. Models are showing decent agreement in the track of the system. However they vary on the amount of cold that will work in. The map on the left shows the odds of seeing snow or a mix. The margin of error is about 50-100 miles north or south of the current situation. We will see how this one plays out. The NAO is around -1, meaning the track makes sense. It is just a matter of cold air available. Those interested in possible amounts...models are showing 3-6" is some areas.

Sunday, December 9, 2012

Winter Storm Update

Overall, the forecast still looks good. Added to totals in the Minneapolis area due to a deformation zone setting up over that area. The clouds will basically empty themselves over central Minnesota.

Friday, December 7, 2012

Winter Storm Update

Quick update on the snow map tonight. Not to much has changed. It does look like the northern stream will win out this time around. If you miss out on this storm, another one appears to be possible next weekend.

3:10pm update: Snow map still looks good, northern areas of lower Michigan should expect to be on the lower end of the 3-6", maybe more like 2-4".

Thursday, December 6, 2012

Winter Storm Sunday

The storm we have been watching for the past week or so has split. Here is the first snow map based on the latest model runs. There is some variance in the models. Some want to develop the southern low pressure more and some want to strengthen the northern piece of energy. Overall the northern low seems to win. We will be watching the area in orange as this area has the potential for snow accumulations.
 Here is an image off the 00z GFS model run, showing the stronger northern low. The darkest green shows the area of heaviest snow. Iowa may see some mix, along with northern IL and southern WI.
It will emerge from the Rocky Mountains as two pieces. Again, the strongest piece appears to move through the northern plains. This will be watched as it is the key to figuring out this storm! stay tuned!

Wednesday, December 5, 2012

Winter Storm Sunday/Monday

Good evening, before getting into the forecast, realize we are on the very preliminary aspects of forecasting winter storms, 5-6 days out. With it being the first winter storm on the year models usually have some difficulties in forecasts. With that said, models are converging on a solution (see map). However, they vary on intensity and how much snow will fall. some 2-5". and some have a full blown winter storm (6"+) Stay tuned! look for an update late tomorrow evening with a first look at a snowfall map! The energy is still in the Pacific Ocean, so things may change a bit, but tomorrow and friday will help to narrow things down.

Saturday, December 1, 2012

Historic Warm Up?

Sunday will be the transition day. A warm front will push north shifting winds in a southerly direction, pumping up much warmer air.

Monday will be the warmest day. Much of the midwest will topple record highs for the day, and many spots will flirt with hitting their all time December highs. After Monday a cold front will move in and bring temps down to seasonable level. We are watching the possibility of a major cool down come next weekend, and a likely pattern change that will bring the full force of winter. Stay tuned!