Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Warm November Ahead for the Midwest

Warmer November Ahead: Here is the official Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecast for days 6 through 10. Showing widespread above normal temperatures across much of the Midwest and country and cooler weather to the west.  As for the next 6 days, Thursday/Friday will be above normal. Weekend: a brief cool down, before another warm up next week, along with a subtle pattern change.

Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Lake Effect Snow in Michigan

Lake Effect Machine has been turned on in Michigan today and tomorrow.  Here is our forecast for total snowfall, including what has already fallen.

Monday, October 21, 2013

First Accumulating Snow for Most People in the Midwest

We are looking at the first Alberta Clipper of the season to drop some measurable snow across parts of the Upper Midwest tomorrow and Tuesday night. With the unseasonably cold airmass in place and area of low pressure will drive south from Canada and ride along this boundary, dropping rain and snow along the way. It is not out of the question to see 2" on grassy surfaces in parts of Iowa, maybe 3" if we can get some banding going, which is often the the wintertime. The rest of the week and beyond is still looking very cold, no changes in sight.

Thursday, October 17, 2013

Winter Comes Early for the Midwest

Here comes the coldest air of the season early next week.  A Massive trough will form in the jet stream ushering in some of Canada's cold air (see map below). Along with the cold air, man small disturbances will rotate into the upper Midwest and bring some chances for light snow, with some accumulation. The 12z GFS (American Model) is putting down some accumulations, see map below. The totals are overdone, but can give a general idea of who had the best chance of accumulations.

Tuesday, October 15, 2013

Official Midwest Winter Forecast 2013-2014

November 26th Update:
As new computer model runs come in and NOAA chimes in with their thoughts on climate trends, we have tweaked the winter forecast. No major changes, except for an area of well below normal temperatures in the Dakotas! The discussion below stays the same. Have a great winter!

Well here we go, after several weeks of contemplation and sifting through models we finally have a solid winter forecast. To sum up, it will be winter's harshest stance in awhile. Nearly all long range models are showing an active storm track through the core of the midwest, leading to many cold snaps and winter storms.  This goes along with our analog winter forecast from September. We have had a very warm 6-8 weeks across much of North America, and this has lead to stratospheric warming in higher up latitudes. This phenomenon actually leads to a prolonged stretch of cool weather across our area. Usually in a season forecast you will hear something about La nina, or El Nino. Warming and cooling of the Pacific ocean, respectively. However, this year models are hinting at near average ocean surface temperatures, so this factor is relatively low.  Now we move on to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, Current model projection) it is a measure of "blocking" through height annomilies in Greenland. Basically we need a negative value for strong winter storms to come up from the south. A negative value gives us kinks in the jet stream which leads to drastic temperature differences from coast to coast (usually cold for the Midwest).  With that being said, we are expecting multiple negative NAO values this winter! Finally, we took into account many long range computer models: Find Some Here! to get our final product. Enjoy! Be sure to tell you friends and "Like" us on Facebook Click Here for more updates this season, looks like we will have a lot of work to do this year.

Saturday, October 12, 2013

Major Pattern Change Happening Now

Strong cold front moving through the U.S this weekend (noted on the satellite, colors of blue and white/cold cloud tops). The strong cold front will usher in much cooler air for next week and beyond. A major pattern change compared to what it has been.  Below normal high temperatures will take hold of the whole midsection of the country by the start of the week. A couple snow flakes are also possible in the Dakotas by the middle of next week and a strong area of low pressure passes through the area. Rain showers will persist to the east of the system. 

Thursday, October 3, 2013


Major Fall Storm System Today and Tomorrow!

Extreme weather ahead for the Midwest today and tomorrow.  The first major winter storm in our forecast area will take hold mainly on Friday. Up to a foot of snow is likely in western South Dakota.  Blizzard conditions are possible with the wide open terrain and tight pressure gradient. Meanwhile, clashing airmasses and a strong upper level jet will produce necessary instability for supercell severe thunderstorms to starting popping later today. A strong tornado threat will also persist through Friday. Stay tuned for updates, here and on our facebook page --------->

Tuesday, October 1, 2013

Winter Storm to Threaten the Dakotas and Minnesota?

It is starting to look more and more possible later this week. A strong area of low pressure will ride a Canadian cold front northward on Friday. The question is whether or not the cold air will make it in time to kick the rain over to snow and possible lead to some decent accumulations. Lots still up in the air, but this is our first real threat for accumulation snow in our forecast area. Stay tuned!