Tuesday, October 15, 2013

Official Midwest Winter Forecast 2013-2014


November 26th Update:
As new computer model runs come in and NOAA chimes in with their thoughts on climate trends, we have tweaked the winter forecast. No major changes, except for an area of well below normal temperatures in the Dakotas! The discussion below stays the same. Have a great winter!





Well here we go, after several weeks of contemplation and sifting through models we finally have a solid winter forecast. To sum up, it will be winter's harshest stance in awhile. Nearly all long range models are showing an active storm track through the core of the midwest, leading to many cold snaps and winter storms.  This goes along with our analog winter forecast from September. We have had a very warm 6-8 weeks across much of North America, and this has lead to stratospheric warming in higher up latitudes. This phenomenon actually leads to a prolonged stretch of cool weather across our area. Usually in a season forecast you will hear something about La nina, or El Nino. Warming and cooling of the Pacific ocean, respectively. However, this year models are hinting at near average ocean surface temperatures, so this factor is relatively low.  Now we move on to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, Current model projection) it is a measure of "blocking" through height annomilies in Greenland. Basically we need a negative value for strong winter storms to come up from the south. A negative value gives us kinks in the jet stream which leads to drastic temperature differences from coast to coast (usually cold for the Midwest).  With that being said, we are expecting multiple negative NAO values this winter! Finally, we took into account many long range computer models: Find Some Here! to get our final product. Enjoy! Be sure to tell you friends and "Like" us on Facebook Click Here for more updates this season, looks like we will have a lot of work to do this year.



ShareThis