Tuesday, April 29, 2014

Severe Weather Threat Shifts East, More Cool Weather Ahead

After a day that brought over 50 tornadoes, another busy day in the severe weather world is beginning to ramp up yet again. Much of the activity will strike Alabama, Mississippi and North Carolina, where vertical wind shear will be greatest. However, there is a slight risk of severe weather from Michigan to Ohio on south. The primary threat with these storms will be damaging winds and large hail. Points further west will continue to see scattered showers.

Here is the 6-10 day temperatures departure across continental United States.
This has been a familiar map this winter, showing below normal temperatures for much of the Midwest while the warm air is suppressed to the south. The jet stream will surge across the country creating a strong barrier from warm to cold.

Sunday, April 27, 2014

MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK, Midwest avoids the worst of the action

A large line of strong to severe thunderstorms is pushing through the Midwest. The main threats will be damaging winds as the line continues to race to the Northeast. A few embedded tornadoes are possible ahead of the line, called gustnadoes. The horizontal shear in the winds can cause rapid spin-ups and cause a quick damaging tornado, stay safe as the line passes through your neighborhood. The line will weaken as it pushes into more stable air.
Meanwhile, a major tornado outbreak is getting ready to break out further south. A HIGH risk of tornadoes is now in effect for the areas in pink below:

Monday, April 21, 2014

When Will Winter Let up and Toss in the Cards?

Signs are pointing to well below normal temperatures during the 5-11 day period, as the jet stream dips well south allowing for the pouring of cold Canadian air. Some computer models are developing a storm system 8-10 days out with a cold (possibly snow) sector on the back side. We will wait and see how this plays out in the coming days.

Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Another Major Winter Storm, Warmer Weather Looming

Yet another winter storm will strike the Upper Midwest Wednesday and Wednesday night. The accumulating snow will add up in the same areas that were hit with heavy snow numerous times in the past month. Record seasonal snow totals will be set and tacked onto. Winter storm warning and advisories are in effect. Light to moderate snow had already developed in the Dakotas this morning and will continue to expand and push east throughout the afternoon. The snow will becoming heavy and have a major effect on visibilities.

Here are the latest watches/warnings/ advisories from the National Weather Service. A map you might expect for January, dozens of countys are under winter storm warnings where over 6" of snow can be expected. The snow will continue into the night for most and taper off by Thursday morning. Points further south will be affects by a light wintry mix and a cool rain, as the system rides the upper level jet stream to the east northeast. Skies will clear in western areas, and with a fresh snow cover, low temperatures will plummet by morning.

In other news, a warm up is in the cards by next week. The jet stream will bump north and with a strong high pressure in the eastern half of the country, the overall flow will be conducive for warm air advection. Southerly winds begin Sunday and Monday which will set the stage for a warm and abundant sunshine week, for the most part. By this time next week May is right around the corner, so wishful and climatology thinking will say that the "warm" weather should be here to stay, but with this winter in mind, anything is possible. Enjoy the Roller Coaster ride of weather the next several days.

On the right is high temperatures for Sunday off 00z European model run. Other models delay the warm up to Monday. While this model may have slightly over done the warmth on northern fringes, well above temperatures are on the way early next week.

Saturday, April 12, 2014

Severe Weather Expected Later this Afternoon

Severe weather will ramp up in parts of the midwest later this afternoon, as a area of low pressure passes to the west of the threat area. The main severe weather threat will be large hail and maybe damaging winds. The map on the left shows the probability of hail within 50 miles of any point. Severe weather will not effect everyone in these areas, but heavy rain is a near certainty. A widespread 1-3" from Nebraska to Michigan will create flooding problems in low laying areas.
Below is the possible rain totals:

Thursday, April 3, 2014

Major Winter Storm Thursday and Friday

Another major winter storm will strike much of Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin Thursday into Friday. Heavy snow will develop Thursday afternoon and last through Friday. As the storm intensifies Friday, it will have the likelihood to drop over a foot of snow near Lake Superior.
Further south, severe weather is ramping up as the SPC has a moderate risk of severe weather.