Monday, June 16, 2014

Widespread Damaging Wind Event Likely Monday into Tuesday

Severe thunderstorms capable of potentially widespread damaging wind...very large hail and tornadoes...a couple of which could be significant...will occur today into tonight from parts of southeast South Dakota and central and eastern Nebraska eastward across much of Iowa...southern Minnesota...into Wisconsin.

A trough over the western United States will intensify during the day one period in response to the equatorward progression of mid and upper-level jet streaks from the far northern pacific into the trough base over the great basin. Downstream from these developments...morning water vapor imagery indicates a low-amplitude short-wave trough progressing into the northern and central plains with this feature continuing eastward development into the upper great lakes by late tonight/early Tuesday.

Tuesday, June 3, 2014

Major and Destructive Severe Weather Outbreak Underway

Property and life threatening severe weather event is evolving at this hour. The atmosphere is primed for excess severe weather and will continue to become worse throughout the evening hours.  A possible derecho will form as we head into the evening and overnight hours. I line of severe thunderstorms will form and push east, mostly concentrated in the "extreme" shaded area on the left. Large hail, damaging winds and extremely heavy rain will be the main threat this evening. There have been reports of rain rate of 8" per hail and hail over 4" already. This is a dangerous situation and any severe thunderstorm warnings need to be taken with a serious attitude. Be sure to watch the local forecasts and local alerts if you reside in these areas!

Below is the forecasted supercell composite for late this evening ~10pm CDT.  These values are extreme!! Anything over 10 is a dangerous situation, we are seeing values of 44! Crazy, stay safe!

Monday, June 2, 2014

Severe Weather Likely Tuesday Afternoon and Evening

Numerous strong to severe thunderstorms are forecasted to develop in the Great Plains on Tuesday.  Damaging winds and large hail are certainly on the way for tomorrow, but the threat for a few strong tornadoes also persists through the afternoon and evening on Tuesday. The highlighted area in red/dark orange appears to be the hot spot tomorrow. Outdoor plans and location of parked cars should be considered for those who resides in these areas. 16 millions people are in the highest risk area tomorrow.

More information will be posted later tonight.

Lake Superior Continues to Hold Ice

For the first time ever, (since records were kept) Lake Superior has a concentration of ice over 2% as of the first of June.  All of the ice or ice burgs have drifting to the southern shore. Even with the recent warm weather over the past several weeks, the ice had held its own, with high concentration of ice in some locations. For example, the map on the left side shows concentration near Marquette, Michigan of over 50%.  As expected, water temperatures are in the 30s and 40s across the lake. May a June Polar Plunge be in store?...

On the right is a computer model forecast of ice concentration over Lake Superior.  It shows the continuation of ice cover or parts of the southern shore into the weekend, which will likely break more ice cover records after one of the coldest winter off all time across parts of the Midwest this year. For a perspective the map below is the average date of the last ice cover over the Great Lakes, notice how March into early April is usually the last date of ice cover, not June!