Friday, November 7, 2014

Where Will this Heavy Band of Snow Set Up?

The track of the system, always the million dollar question when it comes to winter storms and snowfall associated with them. The track and position of baroclinicity will be the major wild card in the system on Monday.  A couple days ago most of the major computer models had the band of heavy snow setting up along an axis near the WI/IL border extending eastward.  In the last few runs the common trend is to shift north with each run.  However, the GEM and some WRF model runs still have central Iowa and southern Wisconsin in the bulls eye.

What we know
- A band of 5-9" of snow will set up somewhere in the Midwest, most likely case in the darker blue
- It will be cold enough to support a light fluffy snow, most of the precip will be in the form of snow
- Models will continue to wobble back and fourth on a solution to the track
- Significant gulf moisture will be available for the storm to tap in to
- Extreme cold will be ushered in on the back side of the cyclone, by Tuesday and Wednesday

What we are uncertain about:
- The track, while we have a general consensus, we will know more tomorrow!
- Extent of cold air, if the air mass cools more than predicted a southern shift is possible
- Banding of heavier snow, will an area of deformation set up, or will we see a broad area of 4-7" instead of a narrow area of 7-10"
- Will a secondary round of snow develop with the surface cyclone, as the 12z ECMWF has? this could lead to more widespread accumulations

Be sure to check back for continued updates