Friday, February 27, 2015
Tuesday, February 24, 2015
Sunday, February 22, 2015
CPC agrees with continued cold air across much of the CONUS over the next 8-14 days. This pattern is similar to the one that set up in January last year. Luckily, we are heading into March, so the sun angle is higher in the sky and "Polar Vortex-like" temperatures will not be seen. However, departures from average will be extensive, and there will be nothing Spring-like about the next two weeks.
It has been generally dry, or snow free in the Midwest over the past month or so. This can be attributed to the northwest to southeast flow. Alberta clippers can form on such a pattern, but they are usually moisture stricken, as their origin is in a cold dry area of Canada. Meanwhile, the east coast was orientated directly in the active storm track. There is a potential that we could head into a more stormy pattern, in the Midwest. Some models suggest the trough to push far enough west and high pressure to build off the east coast. This would allow the jet stream and storm track to set up through the Great Lakes, with snow to the west of the storm track. This would be very favorable for winter storms and cyclones in the Midwest. It would also signal warmer weather for the east coast. Our first opportunity of this change comes in next weekend. The European and american models are showing decent snow across Iowa and Wisconsin, as a storm system and substantial line of baroclinicity sets up. We will need to watch this closely and provide updates, as needed if these storms come to fruition.
Friday, February 20, 2015
On the warm side of the system, freezing rain will be a concern. Winter storm warnings and ice storm warnings are in effect for tonight through Saturday. On the right is the freezing rain potential, courtesy of the WPC. With warm air aloft and a substantial cold air layer near the surface, ice accumulation is yet again going to stack up, on the order of a quarter inch or more. Power outages and impassable roads can be expected in the hardest hit locations. We have attached a snapshot of the 18z GFS, at the height of the storm. One thing to notice is that the rain/snow line, as per usual, will feature a sharp cut off. Any minor tweaks to the track, or strength of the cold air could majorly impact snow totals in some areas. Along with the expansive cold across the eastern US, winter is definitely not over yet. The pattern looks to stay cold for the next 10 days, when we may switch over to a more zonal and warm pattern, fingers crossed.
Thursday, February 19, 2015
Tuesday, February 17, 2015
Sunday, February 15, 2015
Yet another winter storm to strike eastern parts of the country. This time areas further south will get into the action. From Missouri to New Jersey, several inched of snow are likely with frozen precipitation points further south. The heaviest snow looks to fall in Central and Eastern Kentucky, where over a foot of snow is likely in localized areas. Meanwhile from Arkansas to North Carolina, significant and dangerous freezing rain will set up, over a half inch of ice may fall over a wide area. Power outages will be a rule of thumb by Monday and Tuesday.
Here is a forecast sounding off the American GFS model for an area just south of Little Rock Arkansas. This is a textbook example of a freezing rain sounding. The precipitation begins as snow above 700mb, it then hits 700-900mb up into the atmosphere, where temps are above freezing, so it melts. Once the precipitation hits 900mb it will then begin to refreeze on contact, as ground temperatures are forecasted to be in the middle half of the 20s! This could be a dangerous situation and a news worthy freezing rain event as the work week begins.
Even if you miss out on the direct impacts of the cyclone, cold air will fill the eastern half of the country by Wednesday and Thursday. It will be even colder than it has been this weekend, as another piece of the polar vortex drops south, thanks to an expansive ridge in the west and cyclone energy in the east. Wind chill warnings and advisories will certainly be issued by the NWS in the coming days. We have mapped out the area where high temperatures are in danger of not reaching zero on either Wednesday or Thursday, this would be over 36 hours of below zero weather. The pattern is going along with our Original Winter Forecast, so hopefully our projection of a relatively warmer start to spring holds true and the analog forecast years verify. Thanks for stopping by the page and be sure to 'like' our Facebook page for more content and updates, there is like box on the right panel for your convenience. Stay warm out there.
Thursday, February 12, 2015
Monday, February 9, 2015
A weak system will bring a few inches of snow to the upper Midwest starting Tuesday afternoon and lasting into Wednesday, depending on your location. Nothing to major, as much of the snow will come Tuesday night, with the exception of Minnesota, where the snow will begin Tuesday afternoon, which could lead to a slick rush hour near Minneapolis. Total snow amounts are mapped out for you. Winter weather advisories are now in effect, mainly in our 2-4" band. Meanwhile, freezing rain will impact areas where warm air aloft will work in as the precipitation shield is still in place. Those areas are in pink, much of this area is under a freezing rain advisory.