Sunday, November 29, 2015
Heavy snow is expected to break out ahead of a developing area of low pressure and area of warm air advection. The snow will begin Monday morning for most places. I wide swath of 6-10" from Sioux City to Minneapolis is expected. Areas near the Mississippi River will battle warm air surging north from the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, hense the heavier snow west. Higher terrain will amplify snow total in southwest Minnesota, where over a foot of snow is possible. Many of the short term models do indicate numerous areas on banding, so a large gradient in final snow totals is expected. One city could maybe have 8" but 30 miles to the east or west might end up with 3". It will depend exactly where each band sets up. Unfortunately it can be tough to forecast such events, but the most likely amounts are plotted above. Thanks for stopping by at Midwest Weather. Check out the tabs above for more weather information, especially the computer snow output page!
Heavy snow is expected to break out ahead of a developing area of low pressure and area of warm air advection. The snow will begin Monday morning for most places. I wide swath of 6-10" from Sioux City to Minneapolis is expected. Areas near the Mississippi River will battle warm air surging north from the Gulf of Mexico on Monday, hense the heavier snow west. Higher terrain will amplify snow total in southwest Minnesota, where over a foot of snow is possible. A FULL UPDATE will be posted later this evening, including an official Midwest Weather snow map.
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Thursday, November 19, 2015
The timing of the snow has a larger role than usual. With it being so warm in recent weeks, and months for that matter, ground temperatures are rather high. A large portion of the snow will come at night which only amplifies the efficiency of snow accumulation on the surface. It will take a bit to accumulate on pavement, but the temperature and snow rate should overcome the warmer pavement temperatures relatively quickly.
Regarding timing, the storm looks to really ramp up by Friday afternoon. After about 12:00, a band of heavier snow will begin to train over central Iowa through Southern Wisconsin and Lower Michigan. Most of the snow will fall Friday evening into Saturday morning across these areas. This sets up a couple snowy college football games, such as the Northwestern @ Wisconsin games on Saturday. Otherwise, the map should give a general idea when the snow will begin to coast grassy surfaces!
Behind the system winds kick up out of the northwest and usher in cold air from Canada, here is a look at low temperatures for your Sunday. Very cold!...especially with fresh snow cover, off the 12z GFS model. It could be short lived however, as a surge of warm air is possible around Turkey Day! Maybe 15-25 degrees above average!
Wednesday, November 18, 2015
Tuesday, November 17, 2015
*The timing...warm ground and pavement temperatures would limit accumulations if the snow comes during the day, accumulates more efficiently at night
*The track...where the low pressure goes will determine the general area of snow
*Phasing...if this storm cuts north as it passes east of the Mississippi River heavier snow could fall
Either way, the storm will bring in northwest winds by Saturday and Sunday which will usher in much colder temperatures across the Midwest by the weekend and beyond. Low temperatures for Sunday morning are plotted below, off the ECMWF model. Notice the lows will be ~10 degrees cooler in areas with fresh snowfall, due to radiational cooling. Keep it here to Midwest Weather for updates throughout the week.
Monday, November 16, 2015
Post from Last Year, almost a carbon copy! That storm, like many sections of temperature gradient induced snows, trended north with time. This and prior model runs is why we included areas such and Minneapolis to Green Bay in the potential for accumulation. Now the real question, how much are we talking? Well, model runs in recent days have been impressive, but it looks like a general 3-5" with isolated amounts of 6+" where possible banding could set up. The higher amounts look to develop east of the Mississippi River, lesser amounts west. This will need to be watched closely in the coming days, as we look to pin down the exact location of moderate snow. The pattern looks to kick over to cold and stormy beyond 5 days through the end of the month. You can always watch the snow models come in yourself on our Computer Snow Output page. Keep it here for updates throughout the week and our first snow map of the season when the event gets closer.
**Next update scheduled by Tuesday, 2pm CDT**
**Next update scheduled by Tuesday, 2pm CDT**