Tuesday, December 19, 2017

Midwest Snow Event by Late-Week

Snow will develop by Wednesday across the northern Plains and fill in towards the Midwest by Thursday. Several inches of snow are possible throughout North Dakota and parts of the Upper Midwest. There will be 3 pieces of energy that produce snowfall over the next several days. If they would have all phased together at the same time, which does tend to happen this time of year, heavy snowfall would then have been likely, yet this is what we are left with. The heaviest snow will be over northern North Dakota and Northeast Wisconsin into Michigan.

Monday, December 18, 2017

Midwest Weather Winter Storm Update

Quick winter storm update tonight, with models coming into better agreement confidence is starting to rise. The forecast from Saturday still looks generally on track, with just a few subtle changes. The track wobbles are noted in the graphic to the left. It still appears a weak system will kick off light snow across the far northern Plains Wednesday into Thursday, with a general 3-6" of snow likely here by Thursday morning. Then, by Late Thursday morning a cyclone across Nebraska will develop and push towards Chicago. As this occurs, moisture will  be brought to the northwest and snow will increase in coverage and intensity to the left hand side of the low. It is a classic track for heavy snow across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Some light snow should develop Thursday morning in the Central Plains, with 2-5" likely here. The snow will ramp up as the low develops and should become moderate to heavy by Thursday afternoon and evening. The darker shade of blue has the best chances for 6"+ of snow, as it looks like a band of 5-10" is possible across this area, with lesser amounts outside of this zone. There are still some questions with the systems; such as whether thunderstorms in the south will rob any of the moisture and just how deep the low can get before moving into Canada. As always, being still 3+ days out there will likely be a couple tweaks in the exact track of the low, which will have impacts on who sees the most snow. A more detailed snow map will be issued by tomorrow evening as things become even more clear. As per usual, more weather updates will be posted on Twitter and Facebook!

Saturday, December 16, 2017

Pre-Christmas Winter Storm Possible across Midwest

It's that time of year, the time when just about everyone wouldn't mind to see the white stuff falling from the sky. Well, Mother Nature may come through with accumulating snows in the days leading up to the holiday. Models have been showing a favorable pattern for days, and are becoming more clear with a couple storm systems ejecting from the Rocky Mountains December 20th-22nd. With a substantial trough in place, the cold air supply with be sufficient to support snow through much of the Midwest.

Our first peice of energy will slide out of Montana December 20th and bring warmer air north towards North Dakota and Minnesota. As this warm air is bought over the top of stubborn cold air at the surface, precipitation will emerge once it reaches saturation. Widespread light snow should develop across much of the northern Plains with a few inches of snow likely across much of the region, and isolated locations of more snow eare possible. The main surface low will weaken and transfer towards eastern Colorado the coming days.

When this energy digs south into the Central Plains by the 21st, a developing surface low pressure system will strengthen as it pushes northeast towards the Upper Great Lakes. As the low deepens, upward motion will be induced on the northwest side of the cyclone, and with cold air in place a large area of snow should develop Dec 21st-22nd. The long duration event and effective dynamics in play, heavy snow is possible somewhere from Iowa to Wisconsin and into Michigan. Being still ~5 days out, some details are uncertain, but looks like a good shot for a solid White Christmas across much of the Midwest. We won't touch on exact amounts quite yet, just being too early at this point, but there is a chance of an area picking up 6"+ as we head into Christmas. Be sure to keep it here to Midwest Weather for details and snow forecasts as we get closer to the event. You can always follow on Twitter and like on Facebook for even more updates.

5pm Monday: Click Here for an update

Tuesday, December 12, 2017

Quick Hitting Snowfall Wednesday

An area of low pressure will dive into the northern Plains overnight and quickly develop through the morning on Wednesday. A narrow band of moderate snow is expected to set-up to the northeast of the track, across the Upper Great Lakes. Models are coming together in placing this band from northeast Wisconsin into Lower Michigan. It will be one of those cases where some may see nearly nothing and 50 miles north they see 6" of snow. The snow is expected to be of the light a fluffy variety, so it will quickly pile up Wednesday. The narrow band of snow should produce a general 4-7" of snow, with 7"+ expected in western Lower Michigan where some lake enhancement is expected by tomorrow. Total snow forecast is attached above, along with one model's take on the what the radar may look like tomorrow, attached below. Winds during the snowfall should be rather light, but as the low pressure system pulls away Wednesday evening, winds will shift to the north and increase with time during the evening and early part of the overnight. Gusts of 25-30 mph are then possible, which could act to blow the light and fluffy snow around through Thursday morning. Be sure to 'like' us on Facebook and follow on Twitter for more weather updates!