Monday, December 18, 2017

Midwest Weather Winter Storm Update

Quick winter storm update tonight, with models coming into better agreement confidence is starting to rise. The forecast from Saturday still looks generally on track, with just a few subtle changes. The track wobbles are noted in the graphic to the left. It still appears a weak system will kick off light snow across the far northern Plains Wednesday into Thursday, with a general 3-6" of snow likely here by Thursday morning. Then, by Late Thursday morning a cyclone across Nebraska will develop and push towards Chicago. As this occurs, moisture will  be brought to the northwest and snow will increase in coverage and intensity to the left hand side of the low. It is a classic track for heavy snow across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Some light snow should develop Thursday morning in the Central Plains, with 2-5" likely here. The snow will ramp up as the low develops and should become moderate to heavy by Thursday afternoon and evening. The darker shade of blue has the best chances for 6"+ of snow, as it looks like a band of 5-10" is possible across this area, with lesser amounts outside of this zone. There are still some questions with the systems; such as whether thunderstorms in the south will rob any of the moisture and just how deep the low can get before moving into Canada. As always, being still 3+ days out there will likely be a couple tweaks in the exact track of the low, which will have impacts on who sees the most snow. A more detailed snow map will be issued by tomorrow evening as things become even more clear. As per usual, more weather updates will be posted on Twitter and Facebook!